All the trade press, all investment specialists and renowned economists are asking the same question: has inflation peaked in the United States? In other words, everyone wants to know if there is still room for new price hikes in the largest economy on the planet, or if inflation should show signs of retreating towards the target of 2% per year.
Currently, the Federal Reserve (Fed, the US central bank) has promoted a hike in basic interest rates in order to contain the rise in prices in the country, and it is already possible to notice a cooling of the CPI (Consumer Price Index) ).
However, the indicator remains well above the target, and should end 2022 at very high levels by North American standards.
In addition, the recent deceleration of the CPI has been made possible by the decline in fuel prices, which may eventually accelerate again, since it is a highly volatile commodity whose price is strongly influenced by the decisions of a few countries.
If inflation continues on a downward path, we can expect a less aggressive stance from the Fed, with more moderate interest rate hikes at the next meetings, which tends to be positive for global markets.
With interest rates remaining at low levels in the US, the flow of investments towards emerging countries should be maintained, favoring the Brazilian stock exchange and giving strength to the real against the dollar. Thus, the result of August inflation in the United States will exert a strong influence on the Brazilian market in this Tuesday’s trading session (13).
Read on ‘Investigando o Mercado’ (exclusively for UOL subscribers, who have full access to UOL Investimentos content): information on the acquisition of 36% of Shopping JK Iguatemi by shopping center manager Iguatemi.
A hug,
Rafael Bevilacqua
Levante’s Chief Strategist and Founding Partner
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