Inflation in Buenos Aires was 21.7% in January. It increased compared to December, which is contrary to the expectations of the government at the national level

 Inflation in Buenos Aires was 21.7% in January.  It increased compared to December, which is contrary to the expectations of the government at the national level.

Ahead of Indec releasing the January CPI nationally, which will take place next Wednesday, February 14, the city government published its inflation: 21.7 percent in January, with a year-on-year cumulative figure of 238.5 percent. Hundred. Food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 25.4 percent.

The result represents an acceleration compared to December’s inflation of 21.1 percent, contrary to the official national forecast of a declining trend. Economy Minister Luis Caputo estimated that inflation would be about 20 percent nationally in December. The difference is explained by the types of increases: unlike the INDEC, the Buenos Aires basket weighted more heavily on services than goods, driven by food such as meat, baked goods and dairy products, posted the largest increase of the month. Has been presented.

In fact, goods closed January with a growth of 24.2 percent, while services grew by 19.6 percent. Seasonal prices saw an increase of 34.5 percent, regulated prices saw an increase of 22.3 percent and “rest” (compared to core inflation) saw an increase of 19.7 percent. The data were released this Wednesday by the Directorate General of Statistics and Census of Buenos Aires.

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By category

During January, changes in the IPCBA basically responded to growth in the following divisions: Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages, Transportation, Restaurants and Hotels, Health, Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels and Entertainment and Culture, which Together, an increase of 78.4 percent was reported over the normal level.

Food and non-alcohol beverages increased by 25.4 percent, contributing 5.12 percentage points over the general level, with the main increases being bread and cereals (27.9 percent), milk, dairy products and eggs (28.1 percent) and meat and Derivatives (17.2 percent). Transport grew by an average of 33.7 percent with an impact of 3.31 points, mainly influenced by increases in prices of fuels and lubricants for vehicles and air tickets for domestic use.

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In addition to the increase in rates of accommodation services in hotels for tourist reasons, the increase in prices of prepared food in restaurants, bars and food houses led to an increase of 24.1 percent in restaurants and hotels and an impact of 2.81 points. Health recorded an increase of 30.3 percent with an incidence of 2.33 points, due in part to adjustments in prepaid drug charges and increased drug prices.

Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels increased by 10 percent and had an impact of 1.73 points due to increases in rental prices and general housing expenses. Entertainment and culture increased by an average of 30.5 percent, with an increase of 1.73 points due to the increase in prices of tourist packages.

In year-on-year terms, the food and non-alcohol beverages, accommodation, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, restaurants and hotels and transportation sectors were mainly responsible for the increase in retail prices.

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National forecast

According to the Market Expectations Survey (REM) conducted by the Central Bank among economists and consultants, inflation will be 22.9 percent in January, which represents a decline of about 3 percentage points. For REM analysts, inter-annual inflation from December 2023 to December 2024 will be 231.8 percent.

Consulting firm Orlando J. Ferreres measured that “inflation in January was 18 percent monthly. EcoLatina measured that its sample grew 21.7 percent month-on-month in January. Meanwhile, the Libertad y Progreso Foundation estimated inflation at 19 percent in January.

The OECD expects inflation to rise by 250 percent year-on-year, while the IMF is optimistic that inflation of 150 percent year-on-year could be considered by the end of the year, in line with single-digit figures in the second half. Expectations from Caputo and the economic team.


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