The information comes in the context of the difficulties known for the Federal Reserve (Fed, the central bank), forced by the bankruptcy of the SVB bank and two other entities before the monetary policy meeting next week to determine how much the rates will increase. interest report
Given the 6% increase in prices in one year according to what was expected by analysts and compares with 6.4% in January, according to the consumer price index CPI (CPI).
In a month-on-month comparison, price growth was 0.4%, also in line with analysts’ expectations after the rebound in January.
Also, although this is the smallest increase in years since September 2021, the price level is increasing, it also remains above the technical plan’s long-term 2% target.
It is also the eighth consecutive month in which inflation data increased by the largest share of 9.1% in the last 12 months of June.
“CPI inflation is the expected variation reported, core inflation” [que no incluye precios volátiles como alimentos y energía] It came above expectations,” said Rubeela Farooqi, chief financial officer at HFE.
In a monthly comparison, this tougher inflation data shows a price variation of 0.5% compared to 0.4% between December and January. However, in one year it adjusted to 5.5%, the lowest level since December 2021.
“The housing index was the biggest contributor” to price growth, “accounting for more than 70% of the results,” the department said in a statement.
Food, leisure, shopping also contributed to the rise in prices of household appliances.
The price of eggs, whose fall at this time is symbolic of the rise in the household basket, fell by 6.7% in relation to January.
Energy prices, pressured by the war in Ukraine since last March, continue to fall, 0.6% compared with January. However, in one year they are 5.2% more expensive.
In H he waged an aggressive campaign to rein in runaway inflation, raising interest rates eight times since the start of last year to cool the economy and moderate demand.
In fact, President Joe Biden will point out that the “challenges” in the financial sector will be “constraints” on the way “to a firm and stable growth”.
He shook the board that shook him
While President Hieronymus Powell initially said that the central bank is prepared to increase the pace of hikes and their size, if economic data remains positive, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the next few weeks, Signature Bank and Silvergate Bank in the next few days, may cause. By insisting on these agencies, he increases or controls them beyond what was initially expected by the market.
The bankruptcy of the SVB in particular and the turmoil in the banking sector, partly defined by the sharp hikes in the rate from the past 10 years, could change the picture, despite the fact that Powell himself warned last week that the rates could go up. the last step is expected to tighten at the end of the financial cycle.
The market is also speculating that H, given the situation in the financial sector, has not decided to change its policies, the main tool to contain inflation.