Is the Mexican monsoon coming?… These states will get heavy rain, storms and hail

Is the Mexican monsoon coming?... These states will get heavy rain, storms and hail

Intense rains will freshen up the Mexican region ahead of the formation of the so-called Mexican Monsoon, which is developing over the Mexican region, due to areas of instability with the potential for cyclonic development arising alongside various tropical waves. in country. and before the exit of the anticyclonic circulation.

The National Meteorological Service of the National Water Commission (Conagua) forecasts that the Mexican monsoon will form in these first days of July, helping to alleviate drought and heat with heavy rain and hail in the states of Aguascalientes, Baja California, Baja Southern California Will get , Coahuila, Chihuahua, Durango, Jalisco, Nayarit, Nuevo León, San Luis Potosi, Sinaloa, Sonora, Tamaulipas and Zacatecas, as well as the western and southwestern United States.

According to data from Conagua, the arrival of the Mexican monsoon accounts for 60 percent of the annual rainfall in the region, which helps alleviate drought.

With the departure of the anticyclonic circulation in the middle levels of the atmosphere that survived the third heat wave, the arrival of tropical waves and low-pressure channels, as well as low-pressure areas prone to cyclonic development, lead to precipitation. and gives rise to the formation of the Mexican Monsoon.

What is the Mexican Monsoon?

The Mexican monsoon is a phenomenon characterized by the production of intense, though not continuous, rain over the northwestern regions of Mexico, primarily in and around the Sierra Madre Occidental mountains.

One of the six annual monsoons is the North American monsoon, also known as the Mexican monsoon. This phenomenon typically occurs in our country and the American Southwest during the summer, bringing nourishing rains for agriculture as well as the risk of flash floods and violent winds.

During this time of change between the seasons, the winds change direction, causing westerly winds from the south to carry moisture from the Gulf of California and the Pacific Ocean to northwestern Mexico and the southwestern United States.

The word monsoon is derived from the Arabic word mausim, which means season; Therefore, this phenomenon refers to the seasonal change in the direction of the winds between the continent and the ocean.

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Due to this phenomenon, the average rainfall in western Nayarit exceeds 600 millimeters (mm), with the Sierra Madre Occidental nearing 400 mm and in Sonora and Chihuahua between 250 and 300 mm, values ​​that represent between 70 and 80 percent of annual rainfall in northwestern Mexico.

Monsoons play an important role in controlling the global climate, as when one region receives heavy monsoon rains, the opposite is dry; Similarly, seasonal changes in air cause drastic changes in the general pattern of rainfall and temperature.

Worldwide, regions have been identified where monsoon circulation occurs: Southwest Asia and the Indian Ocean; Australia and Polynesia; Northwest Africa and the eastern Atlantic, as well as the region that includes northwestern Mexico, as well as the western and southwestern United States.

Every year, between late June and early July, the Mexican monsoon begins, and can last until September. It is generated by warm and humid air coming from the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of California, which collect in the northwest of the national territory.

Climate in Mexico

This Tuesday, a low pressure channel southeast of Mexico and Tropical Wave Number 9 will pass south of the national territory, along with an influx of moisture from the Pacific Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea. bring heavy rains at times in Oaxaca and Chiapas; Along with this, there will be heavy to very heavy rains in the South, South-East and East of the country.

Similarly, another low-pressure channel within the national region will interact with the instability in the upper level of the atmosphere, causing heavy to very heavy rain, lightning and lightning over the states in the North-West, North, North-East, West Possible hail. and the center of the Mexican Republic.

The arrival of a new tropical wave (number 10) south of the Yucatan Peninsula will bring rain and heavy rain.

Finally, conditions will be very warm to extremely warm over the northwestern and northeastern states of Mexico.

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For tomorrow, Wednesday, Tropical Wave 9 is expected to be absorbed by an area of ​​low pressure with the potential for cyclonic development located south of the coast of Oaxaca. The further advancement of Tropical Wave Number 10 to the southeast of the national territory will increase the capacity of a low pressure area cyclone, spawning a possible tropical cyclone south of the Guerrero coast on Thursday; Its cloud bands will produce very heavy or sometimes torrential rain over Guerrero, Oaxaca and Chiapas, as well as strong winds and high waves along the coasts of those states.

During the forecast period, elevation deviations and moisture ingress from the Pacific Ocean will cause heavy to very heavy rain, lightning and possible hail over the northwest and west of Mexico.

On the other hand, very warm to very warm conditions would prevail over the northwestern and northeastern states of the national region.

Rain forecast in the Mexican region

Very heavy rain with intense points (75 to 150 mm): Oaxaca and Chiapas.

Heavy rain with very strong points (50 to 75 mm): Durango, Michoacán, Veracruz and Tabasco.

Intermittent rain (25 to 50 mm) with heavy rains at times: Chihuahua, Sinaloa, Nayarit, Jalisco, Guerrero, Mexico City, State of Mexico, Morelos, Puebla, Campeche and Quintana Roo.

Rainbow interval (5 to 25 mm): Sonora, Colima, Coahuila, New Leon, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Zacatecas, Guanajuato, Querétaro, Hidalgo, Tlaxcala and Yucatan.

Isolated rainfall (0.1 to 5 mm): Baja California Sur

Minimum and maximum temperatures for Mexican Republic

Maximum temperature above 45°C: Baja California.

Maximum temperatures from 40 to 45 °C: Sonora, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas and San Luis Potosí.

Maximum temperatures from 35 to 40 °C: Southern California, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Sinaloa, Nayarit, Jalisco, Michoacan, Guerrero, Veracruz, Campeche, Yucatan and Quintana Roo.

Maximum temperatures from 30 to 35 °C: Colima, Durango, Zacatecas, Aguascalientes, Guanajuato, Querétaro, Hidalgo, Puebla, Morelos, Oaxaca, Chiapas and Tabasco.

Minimum temperature from 0 to 5 °C: Baja California, the mountainous regions of the State of Mexico, Hidalgo, Puebla and Tlaxcala.

Wind Forecast for the Mexican Region

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Winds with gusts of 40 to 60 km/h: Veracruz, Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatan and Quintana Roo; With possible tornadoes: Lower California, Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila, New Leon, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Zacatecas, Durango and Guanajuato.

Recommendations for the rainy season

During the rainy season, it is important to take some precautions to stay safe and protect your property. Here are some recommendations:

Stay informed: Follow local weather reports and alerts to stay informed about weather conditions and possible flooding in your area.

Prepare your home: Clear gutters and downspouts to prevent water blockages and make sure roofs are in good repair to prevent seepage. If you live in a flood-prone area, consider elevating your furniture and electronics in case water enters your home.

Avoid flooded areas: Do not attempt to cross roads or flooded areas, as the water may be deeper than it appears and you may become trapped or swept away. If possible, stay home until the flood subsides.

Drive safely: If you need to drive during heavy rain, slow down, keep a safe distance from other vehicles, and avoid areas prone to flooding. Pay attention to road closure warnings and follow the instructions of the authorities.

Be prepared for power outages. Lightning storms can cause power outages. Carry extra batteries, candles and flashlights. Charge your electronics ahead of time and consider having a backup generator, if possible.

Avoid landslide-prone areas: If you live in mountainous areas or areas with steep slopes, be aware of possible landslides. If local authorities issue a warning, evacuate the area if necessary.

Keep your important documents safe: Keep your important personal documents in a waterproof plastic bag or scan digital copies to keep them safe in case of a flood.

Have an Emergency Kit: Prepare a basic emergency supply kit that includes drinking water, non-perishable food, medicines, a first aid kit and other essentials that you may need in an emergency.

Remember to follow the instructions of the local authorities and always give priority to your and your family’s safety during the rainy season.


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