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Monday, December 05, 2022

Kevin Durant will crash the board in the big matchup versus the Bucks for Thursday, along with other best bets

Today was to be MLB Opening Day. We should be watching baseball right now, but instead, there’s no game this afternoon, and we’re all being forced to go to work or errands or whatever we want to do. It’s like the MLB owners and players didn’t even think about how we wanted to spend a Thursday afternoon on the last day of March.

I mean, it’s snowing right now where I am. Seriously, while it’s not heavy, I’m looking out the window and seeing snowflakes. Would it have snowed if MLB never had a lockout and was able to start the season on time? I’m going to say, no, it won’t snow. The heat of Opening Day must have scared it. It will be sunny and 55 degrees if not for the lockdown.

Instead, it’s snowing, and I had to put on gloves while walking the dog this morning.

We may not have baseball to bet on today, but we have many other options.

All Time Eastern, and All Odds via Kaiser Sportsbook


hot ticket

I Bucks at Nets, 7:30 pm | TV: TNT

  • key trends: In 12 games since the start of last season, Kevin Durant has averaged 10.2 rebounds per game against Milwaukee.
  • Pick: Kevin Durant over 7.5 rebounds (-110)

It’s the biggest game on the NBA schedule tonight, as we get a rematch of a great playoff series from last season. However, this year things are looking a bit different. While the Bucks are second in the East, the Nets are only eighth, four games behind Toronto – the sixth seed that would save them the humiliation of playing in a play-in tournament. Given that there are only six games left in the regular season, the Nets can’t lose if they want to entertain any hope of getting out of it.

The good news for Brooklyn is that Kyrie Irving can now play. This is good news for us as well, as both teams need to be as close to full force as possible. Unfortunately, I don’t know what will happen as a result. There isn’t enough data with Kyrie’s play to come to a firm conclusion, though I lean a bit toward Milwaukee and points if you’re dying to make a play on the spread.

Better bet on Kevin Durant for grabbing a bunch of rebounds. This matchup has been dominated by Durant since last season. In 12 games against the Bucks from last year – Durant missed the last meeting – KD averaged 10.2 rebounds per game. He only had less than eight in one of those games, and that was Game 2 last season when he made four rebounds in a 39-point Brooklyn victory that saw him sit out a large portion of the second half. Andre Drummond’s presence is driving Durant’s total on the rebound to 7.5, but I see this as a great opportunity to take advantage of the miscalculation.

Here’s what Sportsline is saying about the game: If you’re looking for a more traditional play tonight, the projection model has a strong tilt to one side of the total, while SportsLine NBA handicapped Mike Barner has a play on the spread.


like

USATSI

nba

76ers on the Pistons, 7 pm | TV: NBA League Pass

Latest hurdles:

225.5. more than

Likes: over 223.5 (-110) — Most trends are meaningless. I share them in this newsletter because people like them, but it’s not often that you must rely strictly on one instinct to make a decision. Instead, they should be something that informs your decision. That said, there are also trends you should pay attention to, and we have one of them tonight.

In the last eight matches between these teams, this over has gone 7-0-1. Tonight’s meeting totals are a bit high compared to most of those games, but I love tonight’s over because Detroit’s offense has improved recently. While the Pistons have an aggressive rating of 105.2 on the season, this increased to 112.6 in March. This is an important leap. In the meantime, it won’t surprise you to learn that Philly’s offense with James Harden just gets more efficient. Prior to Harden, the Sixers had an offensive rating of 111.0, ranking 14th in the league. Since Harden has entered the lineup, that number has climbed to 116.0.

In other words, these teams already score a lot of points against each other while playing, and are now a better offensive than they were when playing those games.

Major trends: In the last eight matches, this over has been 7-0-1.

it night

Texas A&M vs. Xavier, 7 p.m. | TV: ESPN

Latest hurdles:

under 137.5

The Pick: Under 137.5 (-110) — Do you know that NIT is running? It will end tonight with the championship game between Texas A&M and Xavier. Yep, looks like all those Texas A&M fans complaining that the Eggies were left out of the NCAA Tournament was the biggest offense ever. However, I would argue that winning a NIT brings more joy than going home during the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament?

Whatever it is, this game is happening, and we’re betting on it because the totals are so high. The Aggies already had an excellent defense, but winning 13 of their last 15 games is a big part of why they’ve taken it up another notch. While I give Javier all the credit for reaching this, given that it has fired its coach and Paul Scruggs is missing a key scorer, I don’t know that I can trust the Musketeers to score as much as Can you Plus, A&M’s offense can disappear for stretches, so I’m not comfortable covering them. Below is easily the wisest decision here.

Major trends: Texas A&M have the Under 5-0 as the favorite in their last five games.

I Sportsline Pick of the Day: The Projection Model’s top play of the night is in the NHL where the Minnesota Wild and the Pittsburgh Penguins clash.


A hockey parlay?

Excuse me, but is this hockey parlay? Why yes, yes it is. And this +122 . pays,

  • Bruins (-250)
  • Panthers (-350)
  • Hurricane (-430)

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