Temperatures in the equatorial Pacific remain cool, but could warm in the coming months.
From September 2020The waters of the equatorial Pacific cooled rapidly, increasing official launch Known as the cold phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Girl, remained so until this January 2023, although it briefly weakened in the summer of 2021, moving into a neutral phase. During all these months, the atmospheric circulation changed significantly causing drought, fire, extreme cold straight from the arctic rainy season in Mexican territory.
The models have differed in their predictive behavior and, If we continue this till 2023, it could be 4 years already In which this phenomenon becomes present by changing the circulation pattern. One of them is that what happened this winter when it is normally dry, there were several incidents of torrential rain, accompanied by a change in temperature. Thereafter, how it may behave in the coming months and its effects will be observed.
La Nina may keep another pulse of winds
The dynamics of this cold phase of ENSO involve ocean–atmosphere coupling, in which strong easterly winds As a response, it dominates the Pacific from the coast of Peru to the proximity of Indonesia, displacing warm water. very cold outflow (rising water) From a depth of 300 to 500 m. Due to this circulation is maintained on Kelvin and other factors, which will survive La Niña while it is active.
Since last December, these easterly winds have weakened, causing the phenomenon to do the same with the warm waters coming into the region; however, Recent models show That the wind will blow again During the second week of February, as a result of which cold water may recede at least during this second month of the year.
⬅️🌬️ En próximos 7 días, viento más fuerte de lo normal de dirección Este se prevé en el Pacífico ecuatorial, ocasionando afloramientos (aguas frías), que puede mantener o fortalecer a #LaNiña
⚠️Hasta marzo podremos saber si pasamos a fase neutra o con tendencia a #ElNiño pic.twitter.com/Qe07vyyUDo
— 🥶Meteorología México❄️ (@InfoMeteoro) February 5, 2023
A Long-Term Forecast Hurdle: The Spring Barrier
Generally, from December and until at least April each year, (long-term) climate models fail to simulate correctly weather conditions, being able to show incredible landscapes, all of that Known as “Barrier Spring”, To make it more clear, in early 2021, the model gave a result that there would be a strong El Niño in the winter of 2021-2022 and this did not happen, with a similar forecast in early 2022 for the winter of 2022-2023 (current) El Niño is expected again.
🔵El Fenómeno de #LaNiña mantiene intensidad débil-moderada.
❓Los modelos sugieren que hacia la primavera-verano pueda cambiar a una fase neutral y posteriormente #ElNiño regrese; sin embargo, la confiabilidad de este escenario es baja, debido a la "Barrera de primavera". pic.twitter.com/EQeUXdXuCN
— 🥶Meteorología México❄️ (@InfoMeteoro) February 5, 2023
Will the sea be warm? Is there any possibility for cyclone season?
In the long term, it is estimated that during the gradual spring can change movement and let’s go to a neutral phase between April and May due to an increase in sea surface temperature; be more noticeable since summer gaining more relevance between June-August quarter end of the year when one Moderate to Strong El Nino may develop.
Now and once again, there is a scenario of return of El Niño from this summer, strengthening towards autumn-winter 2023, How likely is this? very unlikely indeed, Although this condition exists, the truth is that because of the “spring barrier” we cannot count on it even when the easterly winds weaken and warm waters arrive in the Pacific, although of course, we have to wait for its development should know about.
😱Fenómeno de La Niña seguirá por tercer año consecutivo. José Martín Cortés (@infometeoro) te da los detalles.https://t.co/5ElBI3aBtU
— Meteored.mx (@meteoredmx) April 14, 2022
In short, we go neutral phase and later El Nino, Mexico may receive rainfall at or above normal within spring-summer, but with a more pronounced heatwave (dry) and turning again Rainfall towards autumn-winter with low temperature (cooler than normal), while the Atlantic cyclone season is less active. If La Niña continues, spring-summer will peak with extreme rain events and more cyclonic activity in the Atlantic, while autumn-winter will be dry and extreme with warm-cool weather.
