Wednesday, September 28, 2022

Labor has maintained a clear newspaper leadership, but there has been an overall change in the coalition since October.

This week’s newspoll, conducted on December 1-4 from a sample of 1,518, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, unchanged from the previous newspoll three weeks earlier. Primary votes were 38% for Labor (steady), 36% for Coalition (down one), 10% for Greens (down one), 3% for One Nation (up one) and 13% for All Others (up one).

Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s rating for net-8 approval stood at 52% dissatisfied, 44% satisfied. Labor leader Anthony Albanese scored a five on net approval for a -6 rating. It is the first time since the pandemic began that Albanese’s net acceptance has been better than Morrison’s.

As the better prime minister, Morrison led the Albanese 45–36 (this was 46–38 three weeks earlier). By 47–37, voters expected Labor to win the next election.

Joyce factor

In late October, Labor’s poll lead was increased in several elections. At the time, I thought the best explanation was the participation of national leader Barnaby Joyce in the coalition’s internal climate change talks.

With Joyce disappearing from the limelight, the alliance has resumed. The newspoll for Labor at the end of October was 54-46, but is now 53-47. There has been a movement regarding the alliance in the resolution and necessary elections also. Morgan Poll’s going into Labor is perhaps misleading.

Many expected the final two weeks of federal parliament to release the Jenkins report, which found that one in three parliamentary staffers had experienced sexual harassment, which was detrimental to the coalition.

Read more: With Labor leading the polls, is too much Barnaby Joyce hurting the Coalition?

However, we do not know how much impact this has had on the voters. And in April, I wrote that a backlash against political correctness could make sexual abuse more acceptable.

The economy and COVID will be the key factors in the next election to be held by May 2022. While Australian GDP fell 1.9% in the September quarter due to the lockdown, it will rebound in the current quarter. However, due to increase in inflation, the government may suffer.

In the meantime, will the new Omicron COVID version require restrictions to be reimposed?

Coalition gets lead in resolution poll

A resolution poll for nine newspapers, conducted on 16–21 November from a sample of 1,606, gave the Coalition 39% of the primary vote (up two from October), Labor 32% (down two), the Greens 11% (steady). One nation 3% (steady) and independents 9% (steady).

As usual with Resolve, no two-party vote was cast, but analyst Kevin Bonham predicted a 50–50 tie, a double-digit gain for the Coalition from October.

Despite the Coalition’s voting intentions rising, Morrison’s ratings fell. His good rating ranged from seven to 40% for his performance in recent weeks and his poor rating was down from six to 49% for a net approval of -9, down 13 points.

The Albanese also dropped four points to a net-14 rating. Morrison led the Albanians 40-29 as the favorite PM, down from 44-26 in October.

Of those surveyed, 34% thought government commitments on climate action were “not enough”, 28% “about right” and 16% “too far”. This is a 44-34 lead for “too far”, as well as “almost perfect” on “not enough”.

By 49-16, voters supported raising the emissions reduction target to 26-28% for 2030, but this is down from 57-13 in October.

The Liberals and Morrison led Albany and Labor from 40–24 on economic management (45–23 in October). On COVID, he led 36-23 (40-22 in October).

Required Voting Intents

The new website of Essential Polls has a graph of voting intentions. We issued a polling intent at the end of October, but there are two November data points on the graph.

According to the latest required election data, the coalition is behind.
Dan Himbrechts/You

At the end of October, Labor led 49-44 on Essential’s “two-party-favorite-plus” measure, which includes undecided voters – undecided excluded to get their two-party estimates in other elections. In early November, Labor’s lead was reduced to 46–44 and in mid-November it rose slightly to 48–45.

In mid-November, the federal government’s rating for its handling of COVID fell from 48-29 in early November to 45-29 good. There was generally a 34–34 tie between the Coalition and Labor on the management of the economy. When the economic management was questioned on other issues in early November, the coalition led 41–33.

morgan pole

In a mid-November Morgan poll from a sample of nearly 2,800, Labor led 55.5-44.5, a 2% gain since the start of November. Primary votes were 35.5% for the Coalition (down 1%), 35.5% for Labor (up 0.5%), 12% for Greens (up 0.5%), 3.5% for One Nation (0.5%) and 13.5% for All Others (down 0.5%). . ,

Morgan is using respondent allocated preferences, while Newspoll uses preference flows in the 2019 election. Bonhams is very skeptical about Morgan’s labor lead.

Morgan Victorian poll: Labor takes big lead

The Morgan SMS Victorian State Poll, conducted on 24 November from a sample of 1,105, gave Labor a lead of 59.5-40.5, a 1.5% gain for Labor from 11 November. Primary votes are 45% Labor (up 2%), 29% Coalition (down 2%), 10.5% Greens (down 0.5%), 4% UAP (up 1%), 2% Darren Hinch Justice (steady) and 6% Independents. (below 0.5%).

Premier Daniel Andrews had an approval rating of 63.5–36.5 (60.5–39.5 on November 11). 76-24, voters agreed to the health policy that an employee is not allowed to enter his employer’s workplace unless fully vaccinated.

Read more: Victorian Labor’s pandemic bill could easily pass if electoral reforms are implemented ahead of the 2018 election; Labor way ahead in elections

NSW resolution survey: Coalition comfortably ahead

In a NSW resolution poll for the Sydney Morning Herald, the State Coalition had 41% of the primary vote (steady since September), Labor 31% (up one), Greens 10% (down one), Shooters 2% (steady). ) and independents 12% (up two). bonhams an estimate 53-47 to the alliance after seeding.

Premier Dominic Perrott led Labor’s Chris Minnes as the premier favorite by 34–23 (48–21 for former Premier Gladys Berejiklian in September). The survey would have been conducted with the federal resolution elections in October and November from approximately 1,100 respondents.

“Nearly two-thirds” supported voluntary assisted death and only 11% opposed. Of those who voted, 43% said that Berejiklian should not have resigned based on disclosures before the ICAC. Berejiklian’s net probability (positive minus negative thoughts) was between +30 and +40 before his resignation. This dropped to +20 before the ICAC hearing, but has gone up to +31 again.

This article is republished from – The Conversation – Read the – original article.

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