This week’s newspoll, conducted from September 29 to October 3, from a sample of 1,545, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, unchanged from the previous fortnight’s newspoll. Primary votes were 37% for the Coalition (steady), 37% for Labor (down one), 11% for the Greens (up one), 2% for One Nation (down one) and 13% for all others (up one).
It is likely that Clive Palmer’s United Australia party makes up a substantial portion of the other vote. UAP ads have been ubiquitous, and they won 3.4% in the 2019 election, up from 3.1% for One Nation, although One Nation did not contest all seats.
49% were dissatisfied with Scott Morrison’s performance (down one), and 48% were satisfied (up two), for a net approval of -1, up three points. Anthony Albanese’s net acceptance increased one point to -10. Morrison led as the superior prime minister until 47–34 (47–35 the previous fortnight).
For the large majority of this period, each newsletter has been held at three-week intervals. This time a two-week hiatus suggests they will hold more elections in the lead-up to the election due by May 2022. Newspaper figures are from Poll Blazer.
By 59–31, voters approved the AUKUS agreement, although the question did not mention the timing of the acquisition of the new submarines. 46% thought AUKUS would make Australia more secure, 29% thought it wouldn’t matter and 14% thought it would make us less safe. By 75-15, voters thought China was a significant threat to our national security.
Labor has had a lead of 53-47 or more in all newspapers held since July, but I doubt this solid position for Labor will mean a victory in the election. The economy is expected to recover faster once vaccination targets are met and lockdowns are eased in Melbourne and Sydney, raising the prospect of a coalition.
Furthermore, the resolve polls in August and September have been far better for the coalition than the newspolls. As I wrote in late August, the separate message in the resolution should not be overlooked, after Newspolls disagreed with the resolution.
Read more: Alliance collapses but Morrison leads in newspoll; Electoral changes to curb micro parties
The Guardian’s datablog shows 45.2% of the population (not 16+) are fully vaccinated, up from 37.2% two weeks ago. We have been ranked 33 out of 38 OECD countries by share of a fully vaccinated, unvaccinated population since the past fortnight. Age shows that of 16+, 56.5% have been fully vaccinated and 79.4% have received at least one dose.
essential and morgan election
In the last fortnight’s Essentials poll, the federal government was rated 45-30 good on its response to COVID (43-35 in mid-September, 39-36 in late August). The NSW government’s good rating has risen 13 points to 53% since the end of August, while Victoria has recovered to 44% after rising six points to 50% in mid-September.
50% of Victorian respondents said they did not trust their state’s roadmap outside lockdown, compared to 40% of NSW respondents.
A Morgan poll from a sample of 2,752 at the end of September gave Labor a 54-46 lead, a 1.5% gain for Labor since mid-September’s poll. Primary votes are 36% for the Coalition (down 2.5%), 36% for Labor (up 1%), 12.5% for the Greens (down 0.5%), 3.5% for One Nation (0.5%) and 12% for All Others (up 1.5%) ) Were. .
Necessary vs Solution Issues Questions
In Essential, the Liberals had a 15-point lead over Labor on national security and a 10-point lead on economic management, while Labor had a 13-point lead on climate change and 18 points on fair wages and workplace conditions. Labor has reported a five-point improvement on the economy since October 2019.
Questions on the Essentials issue yields a very different result from Resolve, where Labor led the Liberals in September on the environment and climate change by just one point. The resolution gives an “anyone else” option, and those who support the Greens on the issue choose “someone else”, but most of them prefer Labor to the Liberals.
It is likely that Resolve’s questions also have a pro-School slant, as they use “Liberal and Morrison” versus “Labor and Albanese”. As the better prime minister, Morrison has a large lead over the Albanese, so this formulation leans towards the current prime minister.
Newspoll Quarterly Total Data: July to September
Newspoll provides state and demographic analysis from all its elections conducted during a three-month period. As reported by The Poll Blazer on 27 September, newspole data for the September quarter gave Labor a 52-48 lead in NSW, a two-point gain for Labor from the June quarter and a four-point gain since the 2019 election. point advantage.
In Victoria, Labor’s lead blew five points from June to 58-42, a five-point lead for Labor since the last election. In Queensland, the coalition, led 55-45, has a double-digit gain for them since July, but a 3.4% swing for Labor since the election. In WA, Labor led 54-46, which would be a swing of about 10% for Labor since the election.
Perrot set to become next NSW premier
Gladys Berejiklian announced she would resign as Premier of New South Wales on Friday because of the ICAC investigation. Media reports such as The Guardian suggest that the treasurer of the right-wing coalition, Dominic Perrot, is set to be elected NSW Liberal leader and thus will premiere at a Liberal Party Room meeting on Tuesday as part of a factional deal.
Berejiklian is also resigning as member for Willoughby (21.0%), so there will be a by-election soon. Other by-elections will take place in Bega (NET 6.9%), where Liberal MP Andrew Constance has announced that he will contest the federal seat of Gilmore and Monaro (NET 11.6%), as national leader John Barillaro is retiring. Other NSW MPs may resign in the near future, so there could be multiple by-elections on the same date.
no one won the german election
In the 26 September German election, the centre-left SPD won 25.7% (up 5.2% from 2017), the conservative CDU/CSU 24.1% (down 8.8%), the Greens 14.8% (up 5.9%), the pro-business party, and the other. FDP down 11.5% (up 0.8%), far-left AfD down 10.3% (down 2.3%) and far-left 4.9% (4.3%).
The Left was well below the 5% threshold, but won three of the 299 single-member seats, barely maintaining a proportionate allocation of seats. The right-wing parties defeated the United Left by a margin of 45.9–45.4, and this is reflected in parliament where the Left won 363 of the 735 seats, just short of the 368 seats needed for a majority.
No other party will cooperate with the AFD, but a Left government cannot be formed. Prolonged talks are likely to yield a governing coalition. I blogged this election live for The Poll Blazer.