Friday, June 2, 2023

Latest election poll in Cantabria brings PRC and PSOE closer to absolute majority and excludes Podemos-IU from parliament

The latest election polls conducted in Cantabria with the intention to vote for the regional elections on 28 May bring closer the possibility that the PRC and PSOE agreement will be renegotiated in the next assembly, as the two parties together reach an absolute majority. Although a victory in this appointment with the election would be for the PP, it would not add enough seats to form a bipartisan government with Vox’s extreme right. The Podemos–IU coalition will remain outside the Chamber and will not receive parliamentary representation.

Revilla is cautious against the PRC bump in the elections: “we are going to dedicate the victory to the Tejanos”

Thus, this flash poll, conducted by the consulting company Easiest – Governance and Communication through 400 telephone interviews on May 15, 16 and 17 during the first week of the election campaign, predicts an electoral victory for the PP of María José Sáenz de Is. Buruga, which would be placed between 12 and 13 seats and polled 33.6% of the intent. For its part, the PRC of Miguel Ángel Revilla suffers from breakage compared to the previous elections and is back in second place, remaining in the range of nine or ten representatives and 26.1%, in any case the rest of the forecasts Improvements in surveys published to date in Cantabria.

The best that emerges between the two partners of the current bicameral party is Pablo Zuloaga’s PSOE, which will increase significantly compared to the 2019 results, reaching nine seats and 22.9% of the vote intent. This rise of the socialists allowed either of the two forks that the survey guarantees management to the regionalists and through the PRC-PSOE pact to gain an absolute majority in the Parliament of Cantabria at 18 seats, although the forces With more equal between the two sides.

In Vox’s case, its electoral support would increase significantly compared to 2019, allowing the extreme right to double the number of seats and percentage of the vote, to four deputies and 11.1% of the ballot. The poll predicts a very poor result for the Podemos-IU coalition, which will not overcome the 5% barrier needed to enter the chamber, contrary to what other election tracking published in the past weeks has shown, which has shown its disruption in the Cantabrian was confirmed. Parliament. Ciudadanos, for their part, is moving further and further away from that prospect, as Félix Álvarez’s candidacy remains at only 1.2% of voting intentions.

This flash survey asks specifically about the intention to vote and the assessment of the leaders of the main political forces in Cantabria, which in any case does not exceed a score of 5 points. Pablo Zuloaga (4.7) and Miguel Angel Revilla (4.5) had the best scores, behind María José Sáenz de Buruga (4.2), Félix Álvarez (3.9), Mónica Rodero (3.6) and Leticia Díaz (3.5). In these last two cases, the representatives of Podemos-iU and Vox do not even reach 50% in the degree of knowledge of the people surveyed.

Technique: 400 telephone interviews (62% mobile and 38% landline) with a structured questionnaire, distributed by gender and age quota.

Sampling error: For a confidence level of 95% (two sigma) and P=Q, the true error is ±4.85% for the entire sample and simple random sampling is assumed.

Universe of study: over 18 years of age, registered in Cantabria.

Date of Receipt: Interviews were held on 15th, 16th and 17th May. Stratified random sampling with the selection of sample units (individuals) with a probability proportional to the size of the stratum to which they belong (proportional sampling). Individuals are selected through random telephone routes and quotas by district, gender, and age.

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