There are a lot of people who like to watch NFL on TV. The kneecaps may not have been as many as they were before, but it’s still a huge number. And a lot of them probably find it annoying until the very end when one of the commentators says something like—and it’s almost inevitable that they will—”It’s all going to come down to which team puts the most points on the board.” might.”
For those who do a lively write-up about politics and elections like me, the start of the primary season creates the same annoyance as for us. When someone who is presented as an expert in and out of the electoral process, when you can safely bet someone eventually says “it’s all going to come down to voting.”
There are times when some of these analysts have a genuine desire to give a retort. Ending high school civic programs and news organizations dictated that those who at one time or another covered local government are now apt to explain how and why politicians are elected.
The 2016 presidential election is a perfect example of this phenomenon in practice. Many of the country’s top political journalists, as well as many feeders in the middle and below, were reminded of what was going on. He bought into the spin that the election of Hillary Clinton was inevitable. As such, he considered the leak of an audiotape in October 2016, in which Donald Trump could be heard speaking unattractively about women, to put it mildly, a death blow.
Of course, in many races and in almost any other year, it probably would have. But the election between Clinton and Trump was unlike any option presented to voters at some point in time.
It takes experience in the electoral process to generate a level of sophistication regarding the many nuances in American politics. Fixing this requires more than on-topic expertise. So many of my colleagues missed it so completely that I—who saw the prospect of Trump rising in the White House while Clinton was contracting, even after the release of the infamous audiotape—or so on. or whoever became the cheerleader for the candidate the GOP chose to nominate.
The reason I bring this up is because now I am seeing it happen again. The major political media’s obsession with Trump, the candidates he has supported and whether or not the GOP primaries he is contesting are just a small part of the story of the 2022 midterm election.
It is a popular topic because it is easy to cover and people are interested in it. However, it doesn’t tell us much about where the GOP is going or what’s happening now among Democrats. The next election, as much as the mainstream media won’t like it, will not be a referendum on Trump. It will be about President Joe Biden and how Democrats have run the country for the past two years, even though – and this is something else that has been overlooked – the GOP is now in charge of more states than almost any other state in history. Time .
The Biden presidency is failing. At least that is the perception of the people. His approval rating, which began in the mid-60s when he took office, has now dropped below 40. It’s not good for him, and it’s not good for his party. Democrats are being blamed for things that are happening as a result of Biden’s policies, as well as things that are detrimental to the interests of the United States over which they have no direct control. This has created a positive political climate for the GOP, which has taken a nearly double-digit lead on the crucial voting question, in which party voters want to control Congress after the next election.
How people feel, and why, it all ties together. The environment drives voting and, right now, GOP voters are active and engaged. A Rasmussen Reports national poll released on May 26 found that with 79% of potential voters who are excited to vote in the midterm election, Republicans outnumber Democrats by an eight-point margin. For those who said they were “very excited” (49 percent) to vote this fall, the GOP’s lead increased to 16 points. “These findings are in line with the general congressional ballot,” said the polling firm, “where Republicans held a nine-point lead last week.”
The challenge for those writing about the election is to find out why. To be blunt, they need to set aside their personal biases – left and right – to get in touch with what American voters are thinking, as well as let go of their tendency to judge whether those views” True” or “False”. Only then will they be able to report competently on the fight to control this fall of Congress.
newsweek Contributing editor Peter Roff writes extensively about American politics U.S. News and World Report, United Press International and other publications. He can be contacted by email at [email protected] Follow him on Twitter: @TheRoffDraft.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author.