Forecasters thought May would be cool and rainy, but only 0.28 inches has fallen since the beginning of the month, with no chance of precipitation on the most recent forecasts, and the heat index reached 100 degrees in mid-May.
Last year, experts said that we would have a dry winter.
We all know how it ended.
One thing is clear: With climate change, weather patterns are becoming more intense and unpredictable.
As Sacramento enters another summer, it’s hard to imagine what the weather will bring, especially after experiencing record triple-digit heat last September.
According to the National Weather Service, temperatures in the Sacramento area have been between 80 and 100 degrees, with recent forecasts calling for highs of up to 94 degrees.
And if Dr. Paul Ulrich, professor of regional and global climate modeling, went to Las Vegas and had to place a bet, he’d say it’s going to get hotter.
“With global warming, we’re seeing temperatures rise faster than ever,” Ulrich said. “And as a result, it seems that each year is hotter than the last.”
Will another heatwave happen?
Forecasters are projecting above-normal temperatures this summer.
On the three-month outlook for June-July-August, temperatures across much of California are leaning above average, according to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center. Temperatures are likely to be above normal for July-August-September also.
Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicates that the average summer high temperature in the Sacramento area is about 93 degrees. In June, the average high is near 88 degrees, in July 93, in August 92, and in September 89 degrees.
But triple digit temperatures are known to scorch the region in summers. Last year, temperatures reached a record high of 116 degrees, giving Sacramento one of the longest heat waves it has ever seen.
Ullrich said heat waves are likely to return this summer, with the highest risk from July to early September.
While winter rains lifted parts of the state out of drought by replenishing soils, they may have paved the way for a wet summer, which is unusual for the Sacramento region.
The water in the ground would act as a buffer from the extremely high temperatures, absorbing the heat and moderating the temperature, Ullrich said.
But it can also create a lot of humidity and raise the heat index.
According to the weather service, the heat index, or apparent temperature, is how the temperature feels when the humidity mixes with the air temperature. With 80–90° classified as “caution”, 90–103° as “extreme caution” and 103–124° as “danger”, it is also often used to measure how severe a heat wave is. is extreme. If the temperature is 125 degrees or higher, it is considered “high risk” and heat stroke is very likely.
“If there’s a lot of moisture near the surface from evaporation of moisture from the ground, we’re going to have atheistic heat waves,” Ulrich said.
“Or at least heat waves that pose a greater risk to human health because it fundamentally affects our ability to deal with that heat.”
What do experts predict for wildfires?
This year’s risk will vary by region, wildfire experts say, because of the different effects of winter rain on forests and grasslands.
According to Ulrich, there are indications that higher soil moisture will make it more difficult to start fires in forested areas.
“Hopefully we can at least take advantage of this wet winter to have a relatively benign fire season in the Sierras,” he said.
But grasslands and urban forests – areas between vacant land and cities – pose some risk because they dry out faster and have lots of vegetation that can fuel the flames.
