Harrison Barden/Getty Images. Pictured: Karl-Anthony Towns.
At week 13, there was a split in the middle: the total was 25–25 (50%). We are seeing an efficient totals market after the season started off with a heavy loss and a recent shove trend.
Below I will explain why I think there will be a small window in the week ahead, dominated by more smaller players. I also made an interesting observation about the best day of the week to bet overs.
Here is the weekly market update up to week 13 (week ending Sunday 16 January):
Key bottom line trends to watch
- At week 13, over/under scores increased to 25–25 (50%). So the current over/under season record is 313-328-4 (48.8%).
- The average score is currently on a downward trend for three consecutive weeks. The average number of points scored per game was 218.7 in week 13. The average points per game since the start of the season is 216.9, so the actual results in week 13 were closer to the season averages.
- The lower score is due to the fact that the effectiveness of the offensive has been declining for three weeks in a row. There were a lot of exhausted teams last week due to some of the previously postponed games being pushed back to Week 13.
- The average closing amount in week 13 was 220.5. The market has corrected the total higher as we have improved in games and attack in recent weeks. However, this looks like it will peak in week 11 and if market totals hold steady, there could be a short window for some losses in the coming week.
- An interesting observation: Saturday is for overs. Totals this season have increased with a score of 51-44 (53.7%). It seems to be a common theme of the last few seasons. According to Gimme the Dog’s Sports Data Query Language, Saturday overs are up 234-199-3 (54.0%) since the 2019-20 season. On the other hand, the total on Wednesdays this season has fallen below 73-60 (54.9%).
Top scoring teams (223+)
- Hornets: Average: 114.9 | up average: 115.5 | Total: 230.4
- Lakers: Average: 111.7 | up average: 113.3 | Total: 225.0
- rockets: Average: 108.3 | up average: 116.7 | Total: 225.0
- kings: Average: 110.3 | up average: 113.2 | Total: 223.5
Teams with the fewest games scored (209 and below)
- Mavericks: Average: 105.5 | up average: 102.7 | Total: 208.2
- thunder: Average: 100.8 | up average: 107.7 | Total: 208.5
- Nix: Average: 104.6 | up average: 104.6 | Total: 209.2
- Clippers: Average: 104.1 | up average: 105.4 | Total: 209.5
- Cavaliers: Average: 107.4 | up average: 102.4 | Total: 209.8
- Heat: 26-16-1 (61.9%)
- Missiles: 27-18 (60%)
- Spurs: 25-17-1 (59.5%)
- Predators: 23-17 (57.5%)
- Jazz: 24-18-1 (57.1%)
- Hornets: 24-18-1 (57.1%)
- Mavericks: 13-30 (30.2%)
- Warriors: 16-26-1 (38.1%)
- Cavaliers: 17-27 (38.6%)
- 76ers: 16-25-1 (39.0%)
- bucks: 18-26-1 (40.9%)
- Clippers: 18-26 (40.9%)
- Mavericks: 9-1 down in last 10 games (11-1 down in last 12 home games)
- Nix: 8-3 down in last 11 games
- bucks: 6-1 down in last seven games
- Clippers: 5-1 down in last six games
- Predators: 4-0 for underweight in last four games
- rockets: 14-3 overs in last 17 games (7-1 overs in last eight home games)
- Lakers: 9-2 to end in last 11 games
- The Lakers’ recent smallball roster with LeBron James in the top five has given impetus to their offense and pace.
- Timberwolves: 9-2 to end in last 11 games on Road
- This team is finally healthy and ranked first in offensive rating (120.8) and second in pace (104.1) in their previous five games.
- Wizards: 9-3 to end in last 12 games
- Heat: 7-2 in last nine games
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