Thursday, March 23, 2023

NOAA predicts longer-than-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2022

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, is forecasting above-average hurricane activity this year—making it the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season. NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans June 1 through November 30, predicts a 65% chance of above-normal weather, a 25% chance of near-normal weather, and a 10% chance of below-normal does. weather.

For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting a potential range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 6 to 10 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater). ), which includes 3 to 6 major storms. (Category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA assigns these categories with 70% confidence.

A summary infographic showing the predicted hurricane season probability and number of named storms from NOAA’s 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. (NOAA)

Commerce Secretary Gina M. Raimondo said, “Early preparation and understanding your risk is the key to being hurricane-forced and climate-ready.” “Throughout the storm’s season, NOAA experts will work around the clock to provide early and accurate forecasts and warnings that communities can rely on to stay informed on the storm’s path.”

The projected activity of this hurricane season has been attributed to several climatic factors, including the ongoing La Nia, which is likely to persist throughout the hurricane season, and warmer than average sea surfaces in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea. temperature, weak tropical Atlantic trade winds. and an enhanced West African monsoon. An enhanced West African monsoon supports stronger African Easterly Waves, which seed the strongest and longest-lasting storms during most of the season. The way climate change affects the strength and frequency of tropical cyclones is an ongoing area of ​​study for NOAA scientists.

A summary graphic showing an alphabetical list of 2022 Atlantic tropical cyclone names selected by the World Meteorological Organization. The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 and lasts until November 30. (NOAA)

“As we reflect on another potentially busy hurricane season, past hurricanes – such as Superstorm Sandy, which devastated the New York metro area ten years ago – remind us that the effects of a hurricane can be felt for years. is,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “Since Sandy, NOAA’s forecast accuracy continues to improve, allowing us to better predict the effects of major hurricanes to lives and livelihoods.”

Additionally, NOAA has extended the following products and services to weather this hurricane:

“Hurricane Ida spans nine states, indicating that anyone may be in the direct path of the storm and may be at risk from remnants of the storm system,” FEMA Administrator Dean Criswell said. “It is important for everyone to understand their risk and take proactive steps to ensure you receive emergency alerts in real time by visiting and for preparedness tips and downloading the FEMA app. are.”

NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not forecast for landslides. In addition to the Atlantic seasonal outlook, NOAA has also issued seasonal storm outlooks for the eastern Pacific and central Pacific hurricane basins. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2022 Atlantic Weather Outlook in early August, just ahead of the season’s historic peak.

Nation World News Desk
Nation World News Desk
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