The latest quarterly report of Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables and SEIA announced, frankly, “many years of sustained, strong growth” for the US solar photovoltaic sector (many years of sustained, strong growth). A growth that is already evident in the first half of 2023 (the sector installed 20% more solar power than in the first half of 2022), a growth that will increase in the second half (Wood Mackenzie estimates that 2023 will close + 52% compared to 2022) and a growth in any case with a specific factor: the Inflation Reduction Act, a measure approved by the United States Government a little over a year ago that allocates approximately $370 billion to clean energy. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) “undoubtedly caused – the authors of the report emphasize – a wave of intense optimism for the future growth of the solar industry.”
And that wave of optimism has already turned into a brutal acceleration (double digits) in the pace of installation (+ 20% in the first semester of the course, as stated; + 52% estimated for the annual total the 2023) and also shows (trouble) in the form of projects. Manufacturers of photovoltaic solar modules have announced in the last few months, after the approval of the IRA, more than thirty new factory projects. If all these production centers are completed – they explained from Wood Mackenzie -, the United States (including Puerto Rico) will increase the total production capacity of the module in an extraordinary way between now and 2026. From the current 10,600 MW to … 108,500 , installed in the entire European Union almost tripled last year (38,700 MW).
These are the main conclusions of the latest US Solar Market Insight
• In the second quarter of 2023, the solar photovoltaic (PV) market in the United States installed 5,600 MWdc of capacity, which represents a 20% increase over the same period in 2022 and 8% less than in the first quarter . 2023. With almost 12,000 MWdc installed in the first half of the year (8,000 in the same period in 2022), the figures for this first quarter of 2023 are clearly set to reverse the slowdown experienced by the solar PV market in the US in 2022, slow down. due to the serious problems faced by the PV supply chain in 2022. According to Wood Mackenzie, imports of PV solar modules increased significantly in the first half of the year, reaching 24,400 MWdc, more than double the same during last year. : 11,400 MWdc.
• Solar photovoltaic technology contributed 45% of the increase in generation capacity added to US networks in the first half of the year.
• The residential segment broke the best quarterly historical record, with 1,800 MWdc installations (those registered in the second quarter of the year, 2Q2023). The number (1,800) is favored by the record 607 MWdc installed in California, due to the surge in demand released by the transition from net metering to a less favorable net billing regime. Wood Mackenzie forecasts 9% growth in this segment for this year 23.
• The commercial segment installed 345 MWdc, nine points lower than the same period last year and twenty points lower compared to the first quarter of this year (-20%). However, although the power decreased quarter-quarter, the total number of projects increased by seven points (+7%).
• The share of the solar community signed 226 MWdc this second quarter of the year, sixteen points less than the second quarter of 2022, but approximately the same as the first quarter of 2023. According to Wood Mackenzie, although there is considerable momentum For community solar development, installation volumes have stagnated in many states due to a variety of factors, including interconnection delays, supply chain issues, permitting, and uncertainty over the implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act, a measure designed to boost the sector whose implementation has been slow and complicated, according to the consulting firm.
• The share of large supply companies (utility-scale) installed 3,300 MWdc in the second quarter of the year, which represents an increase of 22% compared to the second quarter of last year, but a fall of fourteen points compared to the first quarter of 23. According to the consulting firm responsible for this report, the supply of equipment continues to be a challenge, but the promoters are adapting their strategies to successfully face that challenge.
• The Inflation Reduction Act “undoubtedly caused – Wood Mackenzie highlights – a wave of intense optimism for the future growth of the solar industry”, and, in this new framework (the measure was approved only one year ago), PV module manufacturers Announced about three dozen new factory projects in recent months. If all these production centers are completed, the United States (including Puerto Rico) will increase the total module production capacity in an extraordinary way between now and 2026. From 10,600 MW to 108,500.
• After the decline experienced by the sector last year (-13%), Wood Mackenzie estimates a 52% growth in the solar industry this year, which will occur with the commissioning of almost 32,000 MWdc capacity. The consulting firm foresees the installation of 20,000 MWdc in this second semester of the course, which will exceed all semiannual totals before 2021. In other words, the second semester of 2023 will be the second best of all time. Of course, there is an important difference between distributed generation and large land-based installations. While growth will initially be modest, major facilities will double their score by 2022.
• Wood Mackenzie ultimately sees average annual growth of 15% over the next five years. According to the consultancy, the implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act, which took place a little over a year ago, is slow and complicated, but the certainty that this step is inoculating makes us look forward – they pointed out from WM – double- digit growth in the solar industry. After 2023, the average annual growth for the large PV installation sector is around 9%; that of the residential sector, 6% (due to the problems caused by distributors in self-consumption and the slow maturation of the community segment, among other things); and that of the non-residential sector, 8%. The consulting firm, which estimates that by the end of the first half of 2023 there will be 153,000 MWdc of photovoltaic solar power installed in the United States, predicts that the US national PV park will grow to 375,000 MWdc by the end of 2028. The Tree The report Mackenzie’s literally says many years of steady, strong growth.
Credentials
Established in 1974, the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) is an association with about a thousand member companies and other strategic partners. Wood Mackenzie is a multinational consulting firm that has been operating for more than 50 years and specializes in the analysis of renewable energy and natural resources markets. The US Solar Market Insight is a quarterly report produced by two entities (SEIA and Wood Mackenzie), based on information collected from nearly 200 installers, manufacturers, electricity supply companies and state agencies. . The report identifies and analyzes trends and, based on these analyses, presents estimates for five years.
