Monday, October 25, 2021

San Bernardino County homebuying falls 11% over next 6 months, history says

Autumn brings shorter days, brisk weather, and historically speaking, a home-buying chill to San Bernardino County.

When my trusty spreadsheet looked at the seasonal fluctuations in the 1988 monthly DQNews statistic—which has been tracking 1.11 million San Bernardino County sales for more than a third of a century—September was often the start of a six-month cooling trend. Is.

In six Southern California counties, all have had average sales declines in 33 years this off-season (September through February). Compared to the other prime-time half of a year (March to August). Only Riverside and San Bernardino counties benefited from their average value.

San Bernardino County purchases from September to February have been down 11% from the March to August homebuying pace since 1988. But home prices have fallen 31% in this half since 1988, while down 34% in the other six months. Year.

You don’t need a spreadsheet to see why people generally don’t like buying homes around the start of school and the holiday season. But it’s important to remember that there’s a good chance there is lethargy ahead.

Weather knowledge can be helpful when charting home buying trends in the coming months. And assuming historical trends, the challenges of the housing market – from high prices to limited options – could escalate over the slow-selling, autumn-winter period.

Look at seasonal swings and what house hunters pay: Over 33 years, average prices in San Bernardino County increased by an average of 0.63%, while prime time increased by 4.4%.

So what does history tell us about month-to-month pricing and sales patterns in San Bernardino County? The last 33 years suggest that the homebuying report for the next six months should show a cool…

September: Prices are down 42% this month in 33 years. Average one month change? An increase of 0.44% since 1988. sales declined 82%; 8.1% average drop.

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October: 33% drop in prices; 0.34% average growth. sales fell by 39%; 2.4% average growth.

November: 24% drop in prices; 1.52% average growth. sales declined 82%; 8.6% average decline.

December: 52% drop in prices; 0.3% average drop. sales declined 18%; 8.5% average growth.

January: 85% price drop; 3.15% average drop. sales declined by 97%; 23.1% average drop.

February: 27% drop in prices; 1.87% average growth. Sales fell 64%; 1% average drop.

March: 30% price drop; 1.17% average growth. Sales never fell; 30.6% average growth.

April: 39% drop in prices; 0.02% average increase. sales declined 52%; 0.3% average drop.

May: 24% drop in prices; 1.61% average growth. sales declined 33%; 5.4% average growth.

June: 39% drop in prices; 0.99% average growth. sales declined 21%; 7.1% average growth.

July: 42% drop in prices; 0.04% average drop. Sales declined 61%; 3% average drop.

August: 39% drop in prices; 0.61% average growth. sales fell by 30%; 5.1% average growth.

Elsewhere in Southern California, here’s how the house hunting season has been since 1988—the autumn-winter “off” season versus the market’s “prime time” six-month period…

Six-county area: 1.8% average price drop and 16% short sales.

Los Angeles County: 2.4% average price drop and 16% short sales.

Orange County: 1% average price drop and 18% short sales.

Riverside County: 1.7% average price gain and 15% short sales.

San Diego County: 0.8% average price drop and 18% short selling.

Ventura County: 3.1% average price drop and 17% short selling.

Jonathan Lancer is business columnist for Southern California Newsgroup. He can be contacted at [email protected]

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