Wednesday, December 07, 2022

Saturday Rockpile: Looking for honors and 86 wins on the road: A guide to making the 2022 playoffs for Colorado

Using season-to-date playoff predictions on FanGraph—which relies on recent performances and creates a more neutral prediction system rather than weighting ballpark and rival factors—the Rockies have an estimated record of 76–86 in the 2022 season. Entered with and odds for making the playoffs at 26.7%. Entering Saturday, that outlook has improved to a 79-83 record and 32.3% odds. The FanGraph prediction model — which relies on a mix of steamers and zips — has been, and remains, very skeptical, but it should come as no surprise to anyone who knows the name Dan Simborsky.

All of this is to say that the Rockies 5-2 has had a better start than expected even for launch systems. This is not news. If you watch the team play, you see that the bullpen has been delivering strong innings so far and most of the contributors in the lineup and rotation are producing as expected. Still have the warts – it hasn’t been great to come with runners in scoring-position and Charlie Blackman, Kyle Freeland and Brendan Rodgers haven’t had much success so far. But overall, the Rockies are in good shape to start the season and hopefully still survive on course for the playoffs. But what will it take for the Rockies to turn that hope into reality?

Note: Final records for the three shorter seasons (1994, 1995 and 2020) have been adjusted to reflect expected win totals in 162 games based on WL records in those seasons.

adequacy on the road

The Rockies are off to a perfect start on the road, paring a brief set of two games in Texas before heading home for four games against the Cubs. They won’t go undefeated on the road, but the Rockies will need to be at least average on the road to compete for the playoffs in 2022.

There have been five playoff appearances in the team’s history and a total of nine winning seasons in the organization’s 29 previous campaigns. The team has finished above .500 on the road in only three seasons (2009, 2017 and 2018), reaching the high water mark in 2018 with 44 road wins. They will clearly be in great shape if they make new season-high win totals this season, but that’s not something you can expect from the team. so what a total win can do We expect the team to make it to the playoffs?

Rockies Average Road Victory

years average road win
years average road win
playoff season 40.4
winning season 36.8
season to lose 30.4

In the winning seasons, the Rockies have been respectable on the road, averaging 37 wins over nine seasons. This allows us to shoot the least, but the average is a bit high in the playoff season. In the team’s five playoff seasons, that number has grown to an almost-even record of 40 wins. This means that in order for the Rockies to give themselves a chance, the team has to be as close on the road as they can get, if not better.

86 wins

The bar for entry into the playoffs is now seeded sixth in the league, with each team improving the odds to make it to the postseason. We’ve already covered how the Rockies will fare on the road in order to put together a competitive season. But what is the magic of an overall win to finish sixth?

AL / NL #6 Average win totals since 2012

Federation Average #6 Win Total
Federation Average #6 Win Total
Ali 88.0
nl 85.5

In the ten years since the introduction of the second wild card, the average sixth-seeded win-total in each league has remained almost constant. 88 wins is the magic number for the American League. Belonging to the Rockies, this number is about 86 in the National League.

Obviously, not every season is the same. The Cincinnati Reds finished sixth with 83 wins in 2021, the Milwaukee Brewers’ 82 in 2014 was a good 82 and in 2017 the three teams were tied with 80 wins in the American League, which would have had a mediocre logjam for a final playoff spot. If the barrier to entry is lower than expected, it will certainly benefit the Rockies. But overall, conceding 86 wins is the magic ticket to the sixth seed of the National League.

Rockies average home wins

years average home win
years average home win
playoff season 49.0
winning season 49.7
season to lose 41.1

In the playoff years, the Rockies have averaged 49 wins at home. In all their winning seasons, that mark jumps slightly and up to 50 wins can be scored. When we go back to the previously mentioned minimum road win of 37, this puts the Rockies on the right track to meet the 86 wins needed to reach the National League playoffs.

It’s not perfect science, although it is a sensible path to the playoffs. But if the Rockies are average at home this year, they will fall short. If they fall on their faces on the road, they will probably fall short. It’s a long season, so we’ll have to wait and see how it plays out. But for now, history dictates that there are 49 wins or more at home and 37 or more on the road, which will take the Rockies to make the postseason in 2022.

Charlie Blackman, Rockies hail the 75th anniversary of Jackie Robinson’s debut: “It’s a celebration of the man who made it the greatest sport in the world.” , Denver Post ($)

Kyle Newman talks with Charlie Blackman and the other Rockies about what Jackie Robinson means to them. Robinson, who broke the color-barrier on April 15, 1947, is honored by every player on the field by wearing 42 for the day, and 2022 marks the 25th anniversary of the number retiring league-wide.

“This day has really come to national attention recently, which is a great thing,” said Rockies manager Bud Black. “And this day has become something special for all of us (coaches, players and fans).”

Kyle Freeland is on his way to a hearing with the Rockies, but there’s a bigger issue looming on the horizon. athletic ($)

One effect of the off-season lockdown is to push wage arbitration hearings to the regular season. This is the case for 24 major league players, one of whom is Kyle Freeland. Freeland requested a $7.8 million contract, while the Rockies have submitted a $6.425 million offer for the 2022 season, with a hearing scheduled for May 24. But questions are growing louder about Freeland remaining with the Rockies next season. Per Grok, the Rockies still haven’t been offered a long-term extension.

on the farm

Triple-A: Albuquerque Isotope 5, Tacoma Rainiers 2

Zach Neal was exceptional on his second start for the Isotopes, allowing just one base-runner in five shutout innings to take his first win of the season. Albuquerque led in all nine innings of the ballgame. Wynton Bernard had two hits in the game, including a 2 RBI double in the second, which scored the final winning run. Chad Smith made his second save of the season with a ninth inning.

Double-A: New Hampshire Fisher Cats 5, Hartford Yard Goat 2 (Game 1)

In the first game of the double-header, Mitchell Kilkenny had another difficult outing in his second start of 2022, scoring five runs in five innings. Kilkenny delivered two dingers in the first innings, tagged for an RBI double in the second and dropped another homer in the fourth. He struggled with his order, throwing strikes only 54% of his 74 pitches. Jimmy Heron had two hits, including a single home run, in the defeat.

Double A: New Hampshire Fisher Cats 8, Hartford Yard Goats 0 (Game 2)

In the makeup from the postponed April 14 matchup, the Fischer Cats took the second win that day over Hartford. Nick Bush did no better than Kilkenny, allowing six runs and eight hits – three of which for homers – in five innings. Riley Pint made his third appearance in the season, throwing 11 of his 17 pitches for strike, but letting go of his first two runs of the 2022 season with two strikeouts. The Yard Goats scored just three hits in the competition.

High-A: Eugene Emeralds 1, Spokane Indians 0

The Indians were on the wrong side of a pitcher’s duel on Friday, losing to a walk-off solo home run for the only run of the game. Tony Losey hit seven Emerald hitters, with just one hit allowed in six innings. Tanner Propst added two key innings of relief, striking out four. Unfortunately the offense could not support a strong pitching performance, with 11 runners trapped on-base in the ballgame. Drew Romo took two hits in the defeat.

Low-A: Fresno Grizzlies 3, San Jose Giants 0

Fresno won their fifth game of the youth season, putting the Giants on the road. Brian Castillo was impressive again in his second start, spreading three hits in 4 overs 2I3 Six strikeouts and an innings without a walk. Yanquil Fernandez’s first home run of the season in the second innings provided all the run support would be required for Fresno pitching. Meanwhile, Adele Amador and Benny Montgomery each scored two knocks at the top of the lineup, with Montgomery driving two on the double in fifth. Sergio Sanchez 2. won with 1I3 Played a relief innings while Juan Mejia saved.

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