With Iraq’s October parliamentary election results now confirmed, political parties are negotiating the structure of the country’s next government.
Observers say they see alliances between different groups change not on the basis of ideology but on the basis of narrow political interests. Now the main focus is on who will become the next prime minister of Iraq as the country struggles for its future direction.
Observers say the election victory of nationalist Shia cleric Muktada al-Sadr has the potential to break Iran’s grip on Iraqi politics.
Amman-based Middle East political commentator Osama al-Sharif says al-Sadr is one of the few political figures in Iraq calling for the disbanding of the armed pro-Iranian militia.
writing in saudi arab news The daily, Al Sharif, said that al-Sadr’s Sauron coalition is “the only one brave enough to condemn the political quota system and the rampant corruption in the new Iraq.”
And perhaps that’s why, al-Sharif said, Iraqi voters gave al-Sadr’s parliamentary bloc 73 seats “at the expense of pro-Iran factions such as Hadi al-Amiri’s Fatah coalition — a political front for pro-Iranian militias.”
But Iraqi journalist Mina Al Oraibi, writing in Dubai National The newspaper says it does not have a majority, despite al-Sadr’s victory. “Given the changing alliances,” she wrote, “it is not clear whether [he] may win a majority in parliament to name the next prime minister, who will be tasked with forming the future government.
Al Oraibi and other observers say they want Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi to retain his position, adding that “al-Kadhimi still represents Iraq’s best opportunity at stability.”
There is no guarantee at this time that al-Kadhimi will retain his position, says Nicholas Heras, senior analyst at the Newlines Institute in Washington.
“There is a distinct possibility that Kadimi will be replaced. However, there is no clear answer as to who will replace him. Originally, Kadimi came to the position in the spring of 2020 as a compromise candidate. Iranian, American, Shia, Sunni, Kurdish, other groups could all come to an agreement that whatever was available was the best in terms of options, and there is still a feeling that Kadimi could play it. role,” Heras said.
Journalist Al Oraibi states that al-Kadhimi’s strength as prime minister is that “he is not loyal to a single political party and is largely seen as a nationalist, with no ethnic or sectarian beliefs.” affected by.”