we are only a month away exit the referendum From proposal for a new constitution written for one year by conference,
15,173,929 voters have 31 days left to be authorized election service On Sunday 4 September, 15,076,690 votes were cast in Chile and 97,339 abroad, now mandatory.
And tomorrow the TV slot for acceptance and rejection will start, which will end on Thursday, 1st September, the same day the end of all election campaigning and information.
The slots will consist of two daily batches of fifteen minutes each at 12:45 pm and 8:45 pm, divided equally between the two options.
On Saturday, August 13, information about polling stations and polling places, along with the list of voters nominated as table members, will be given, whose time from Tuesday, August 16 to Thursday, August 18 will be to excuse themselves.
Plus, a new survey from yesterday Criteria, which marked a five-point increase in approvals to reach 36%, while rejections were down three points to 45%. Thus, the tendency to unite election persists, in which rejection wins.
But not everything is said, as he remarked meter Two experts on the subject maintain that approval still has a chance of winning, although its margin is narrow.
They and those working in this field will be able to disclose the surveys to the media up to 15 days before the polls. Then private commissioned surveys will be broadcast, which, as is the trend, will most likely be broadcast via social networks.
what should be approved
roberto ijksson He said from the outset that “In recent times, the results given by the polls in the three weeks before the polls have changed. We have seen significant changes. So it seems to me that a lot of water will flow under this bridge, so far so far. What is observed can be modified.
– Is there a chance of getting approval then?
-Perhaps, there are few pieces available, so your chances of winning depend on using them correctly. is that the difference of ten points we verified in the previous survey is significant (48% vs 38%,
– In your last installment you recorded 14% undecided, should we target them?
– No, because it is a very low percentage compared to other procedures. It’s not a big bag of voters, and 60% of those undecided don’t vote. There is a slight tendency toward approval in that group, but they will all vote even if the results will not change. Approval must go to those who reject today and who previously voted for the second round of referendums against José Antonio Casta and Gabriel Borík for president.
– What factors will affect from now on?
, In the absence of debate the television slot would play some kind of role. There will also be regional deployment. And above all, the government will influence, but only if it succeeds in reforming its political capital. This election is highly correlated with government support for approval, and this could change the landscape. An announcement of winter bonuses and gratuities for some FONSA groups can also be factors, as well as a specific offer on what improvements are intended to be made if acceptance is won. And although it has been said that a possible cabinet change would take place after the referendum, anything like that would have an effect. A month is a long time in politics.
– And what about communication errors or poor statements from both sides?
– They are more anecdotal facts that do not change trends. What I see is that this vote is more polarized than in the second round of the previous presidency. It is perhaps the most polarized since the 1988 yes and no referendum.
referendum vs elector
According to axel caliso“There is a group of voters who have taken a decision for some time, about two weeks before the crucial date. This was not the case earlier, and this is a new trend created with the digitization of information and voluntary voting, along with other elements which give the profile of the impulsive voter, which operates in the end and is not based on standing logic.
– What is the hardest to define in surveys?
– For the potential voter, a big mystery in today’s Chile. All elections are based on public opinion, not voters, as it is very difficult to determine the potential voter. And public opinion does not necessarily match that of the electorate. They are different things, so we should be cautious and recognize that there may be changes in relation to survey results.
– And what about the undecided?
– That group does not exist. You have to think of them as people who will not vote despite the obligation. This is shown by various studies, not even surveys. Except Iraq under the leadership of Saddam Hussein, there is not a single country in the world that has compulsory voting in which one hundred percent of the electorate vote. I think in the face of this vote with compulsory suffrage, we know nothing.
– And how do you understand that all polls give rejection?
– One could say that public opinion has a majority tendency for disapproval, that the right-wing should strengthen the ensuing vote by removing the presidency, so that it is not the same as the previous presidential second round. But I insist that public opinion does not vote, voters do. For example, it is not possible to predict and say that many people will cancel the vote or leave it blank because of the obligation. We have no basis to confirm this, as there is no precedent. Scientifically, you should always have a Comparator, and there’s nothing about that here.
– Is there too much polarization?
This is not a polarized election, it is one with intense conflict and many interplay of interests. But the population has not been polarised. There was polarization in 1973 and with referendums in 1988, when lives and countries were at stake. Today a way is being sought to resolve the issue of the Constitution.