Monday, January 17, 2022

Technical outlook ahead of US CPI data

EUR/USD:

Weekly Deadline:

Since mid-November (2021), buyers and sellers have been squared off around support at $1.1237-1.1281 – composed of a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $1.1281 and a 1.618% Fibonacci projection from $1.1237. ‘Harmonic’ traders will accept that $1.1237 represents what is known as an ‘alternative’ AB=CD formation (extended D-leg).

Any rise from current support will be limited by resistance at $1.1473-1.1583; On the other hand, navigating to the downside highlights the south on Quasimodo support at $1.0778.

Interestingly, despite the current support, the pair pulled out of the November 2 low (2020) at the end of September (2021) at $1.1603, which suggests the early stages of a downtrend on the weekly time frame. This is reinforced by the primary downtrend of the monthly time frame since mid-2008.

Daily Deadline:

Quasimodo support drawn from mid-June at $1.1213 (located below the Fibonacci structure of the weekly time frame) entered and committed on November 24th (2021). Trendline resistance, rising from the $1.2254 high, remains overhead.

Analysis of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that an attempt is being made to establish support from the 50.00 Centreline: Positive Momentum. The indicator’s resistance lies at 63.66, which is just below the overbought range of 70.00.

The trend on this scale is less than June 2021.

H4 Deadline:

Noticeable key levels on the H4 scale:

  • Quasimodo supports from $1.1272.
  • There is resistance at $1.1379, along with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $1.1381. Note that these levels are now close.
  • Beyond resistance, a 100% Fibonacci projection is visible at $1.1422 (AB=CD Bearish Pattern), followed by Quasimodo support-resistance at $1.1438. On the lower side of the curve, support falls at around $1.1235.

H1 Deadline:

Looking at the H1 chart, technicians will be watching for a short-term uptrend currently touching the resistance at $1.1364. Overhead, H4 resistance is seen at $1.1379, sharing chart space with 100% Fibonacci projection at $1.1381 and 1.618% Fibonacci extension at $1.1376 (plus 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of H4 timeframe at $1.1381).

With technical resistance above, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is on the doorstep of overbought levels. Indicator resistance is also present at 82.37.

Observed Technical Levels:

The weekly Fibonacci support between $1.1237 and $1.1281 could be enough to drag daily action to an extended trendline resistance from the higher $1.2254, while interacting with the price. Given the decline on the daily timeframe since June 2021, traders are urged to pencil in the possibility of a bearish attempt from eminent trendline resistance.

Short-term, H4 resistance at $1.1379 is crucial now, a level reinforced by several Fibonacci points on the H1 and H4 timeframes (see above).

AUD/USD:

Weekly Deadline:

Prime support at $0.6968-0.7242 continues to play a key role on the weekly time frame. As you can see, the bulls welcomed a bullish phase towards the end of 2021, although the appetite for higher prices subsided last week. Should buyers gain their footing, resistance is formed at $0.7501; A move below $0.6968-0.7242 is showing support at $0.6673 and a 50.0% retracement level at $0.6756.

A downside has been observed since mid-February 2021, following higher prices since the pandemic at $0.5506 (March 2020). However, on the monthly time frame the unit has largely established within a downtrend since mid-2011.

Daily Deadline:

Resistance – a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $0.7340, 100% Fibonacci projection at $0.7315, ascending resistance below $0.7106, and trendline resistance drawn from the $0.7891 high – provides healthy (technical) confluence on this chart. , Support at $0.7021 calls for a downside note in case sellers track lower price levels.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is seen attempting to spot above the 50.00 centreline, with action notifying traders and investors that the average profit is higher than the average loss: positive momentum.

H4 Deadline:

As of current trade (US afternoon Tuesday), the currency pair is within a stone’s throw of support-resistance resistance from the trendline drawn from lows at $0.6993, and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of resistance at $0.7222. Furthermore, an AB=CD bearish formation is located within the aforementioned area (black arrows), adding weight to the area.

Assuming a resistance breach, the technical pendulum swings in favor of a continuation of the Quasimodo support-resistance at $0.7287.

H1 Deadline:

In conjunction with H4 resistances, the dethroning of H1 $0.72 unlocks technical gates towards Quasimodo support-resistance resistance at $0.7229 which closely coincides with H4 levels.

On top of the said resistances, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) nearing overbought territory, a space short-term sellers will watch closely for signs of bearish intent on the price charts.

Observed Technical Levels:

H4 resistance – trendline support – resistance, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $0.7222 and an AB=CD bearish outlook – convergence with H1 Quasimodo support – resistance at $0.7229 echoes strong resistance and is likely to encourage a short-term bearish theme Might be enough, if tested.

Technical outlook ahead of US CPI data

USD/JPY:

Weekly Deadline:

After touching the gloves with the 1.272% Fibonacci projection from 116.09, bearish flows are on the verge of rejoining support formed from resistance at 114.38, a level rising since early 2017.

Apart from the technical note, the currency pair is recently refreshing its multi-year peak, reaching levels not seen since January 2017.

In trend terms, the unit has been trending ahead since early 2021, welcoming a descending resistance breach, pulled from a high of 118.61.

Daily Deadline:

At 116.33 the Quasimodo Resistance made a show, impressing a minor ‘throwback’ early last week. Considering the current trend of the market (North), the 116.33 reaction inducing a decline phase from 114.97 remains a possibility, a Quasimodo resistance-support.

With the above price analysis, the relative strength (RSI) is increasingly approaching support between 40.00 and 50.00 (a ‘temporary’ oversold range since May 10).

H4 Deadline:

Two nearby Quasimodo resistance-support levels at 115.15 and 115.24 appeared in recent trading. With higher time frame resistances weighing on the upside sentiment, a follow-up bullish move from well-known supports is doubtful.

According to the H4 scale, further downside performance is possible as support from 114.50 in the south of 115.15-115.24 is closely capped by the trendline support taken from 112.56.

H1 Deadline:

Quasimodo support-resistance resistance at 115.59 welcomed the price move up in US hours on Tuesday and established a technical ceiling. This directs the spotlight to the figure 115, a level outlined in Tuesday’s technical outlook. You will remember 115 joins hands with 1.618% Fibonacci Projection and Quasimodo Support (left shoulder) [black arrow]) Also important is 115 which is benefiting from support formed by daily Quasimodo resistance at 114.97.

Also note that just south of the psychological number, a 100% Fibonacci projection at 114.90 is located nearby, followed by Quasimodo support at 114.83.

Observed Technical Levels:

Technically, support remains on the radar between daily Quasimodo resistance-support at 114.97 and 115 on H1 (and associated H1 confluence).

However as mentioned in the recent analysis, traders are urged to pencil in the possibility of price whipsawing through the H1 100% Fibonacci projection at 115 to 114.90 and the H1 Quasimodo support at 114.83, this Before that a rapid effort takes shape.

Technical outlook ahead of US CPI data

GBP/USD:

Weekly Deadline:

Crisis resistance at $1.3629-1.3456 appears to be hanging by a thread. Could the recent bid—ahead of the double-top pattern ($1.4241) with profit objective around $1.3093 (red box)—begin with a dip-buy phase, in line with the current uptrend on the weekly time frame?

It is important to recognize that while the trend on the weekly time frame shows an upside bias, the longer term trend on the monthly time frame has been lower since the end of 2007.

If it fails to provide resistance at $1.3629-1.3456, a ‘consumption supply’ (blue area) appears between $1.4001 and $1.3830. With this in mind, a breach of resistance could direct the currency pair north from $1.4371-1.4156 as resistance.

Daily Deadline:

The trendline resistance-support, taken from the high $ 1.4250, is currently lowering GBP/USD and directs the pair above the resistance at $ 1.3602 on Tuesday. Recent action, assuming support forms, turns the pendulum in favor of buyers, tilting the weight towards the 200-day simple moving average at $1.3733 and underlining weakness within the weekly resistance mentioned above at $1.3629-1.3456. Is.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), surprisingly, is on the verge of shaking hands with overbought levels. Note that the indicator has not visited overbought since February 2021.

H4 Deadline:

Supply at $1.3665-1.3625, as you can see, entered the recent hours. The clearing of this base highlights the resistance at $1.3710.

It is equally important to pay attention to $1.3428-1.3444. Consequently, if sellers regain their senses, traders may see a fall back into the above demand zone.

H1 Deadline:

$1.36 finally surrendered its position on Tuesday, turning the price from Quasimodo’s support at $1.3627 to resistance. Downstream, $1.36 could provide support at $1.3580-1.3600 depending on demand.

Price testing of both H4 supply at $1.3665-1.3625 and H1 Quasimodo support-resistance resistance at $1.3627 gives rise to a potential whipsaw (stop-run scenario), as price comes through a buy-stop north of $1.36 .

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), as you would expect, trades in near-overbought territory, ‘suggesting’ that short-term buying levels may drop in today’s session.

Observed Technical Levels:

In the long term, the GBP/USD bulls seem to be moving higher above the daily resistance at $1.3602.

Short-term, (bearish) whipsaw north of $1.36 and a subsequent test of the H4 supply at $1.3665-1.3625, as well as the H1 Quasimodo support-resistance resistance at $1.3627, could trigger a short-term decline.

Conservative sellers will look for a successful test of $1.3665-1.3625 and a close back under $1.36 (H1 demand at $1.3580-1.3600) before pulling the trigger.

Technical outlook ahead of US CPI data

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Nation World News Deskhttps://nationworldnews.com
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