A tropical wave continues to organize on its way to the Caribbean, and National Hurricane Center (NHC, in English) now places the probability of formation in the next five days at 70%, although this does not represent a direct threat to Puerto Rico.
According to the most recent NHC report – released at 2:00 PM – conditions appear ripe for further development of this system, which also shows a 40% chance of development within 48 hours. It is “likely” to form a tropical depression by the middle of this week.
“The system is forecast to move west at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic, approach the Windward Islands on Tuesday and move into the southeastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and Thursday,” the report said. NHC report.
meteorologist Ryan Chambersworks in National Weather Service (SNM) in San Juan, commented by telephone with new day That a significant impact on the amount of rain in the area is not expected due to the passing of this wave, although it will affect ocean conditions.
“As we see in the forecast, there is a 70% chance of formation in the next five days. The system seems to have favorable conditions, but its impact (on the island) will be very limited”. The weather agency expert commented.
The system may pass as a tropical depression over the far south of Puerto Rico by the middle of this week.
“We’re definitely going to have an increase (in rain activity), but it’s not going to be anything significant,” Chambers said. “We don’t expect enough rain to make any difference to this tropical wave” under the current dry conditions, he reiterated.
Last Thursday, the United States Drought Monitor (USDM) reported an increase, 1.32% to 8.33%Severe drought conditions in Puerto Rico, which increase by about seven percentage points a week.
On the other hand, the SNM meteorologist explained that the passage of another tropical wave over the next weekend of “4th of July” may cause rain in the region, but it is too early to define what exactly will happen.