On the final path to defining presidential elections Analysts will give their opinions on Argentina’s future at the conference, which will take place in October. A growing one Inflation, a high budget deficit, reduced Reservations in the Central Bank (BCRA) and an increase in poverty make the outlook for the rest of the year complex.
Inflation rose by 12.4% in August highest level in more than three decades turned on red lights and reactivated coverage in currencies and assets.
“We appreciate that the September inflation You will find yourself in between 11.6% in 13.7%,” said Lautaro Moschet, economist at the Libertad y Progreso Foundation. “The resistance in August itself is very strong, so the lower bound is already based on a pessimistic scenario.” In addition, the first week of the month showed a fluctuation of 3.6%, which means that prices continue to fluctuate significantly Develop increases,” he explained.
“Such inflation makes normal life difficult, makes credit impossible – both for individuals and for the industry – and that is why I advocate that the authorities quickly take the necessary measures, regardless of the election,” he said. José Luis Ammaturo, President of the Argentine Chamber of Small and Medium Metallurgical Industries (CAMIMA).
Prices. The feed basket showed strong fluctuations. Nowadays, food prices in both supermarkets and stores are updated more and more frequently, weekly and even daily.
“The Inflation e It is a huge scourge that is destroying the confidence and growth opportunities of all and all economic activity and that cannot be solved Bonuses or tax changes What are you palliative measures“, he explained.
“Something failed. The question is whether economic policy has failed because we have tried almost everything in these years, or whether communication has also failed and we are unable to convince ourselves. In economics, if you are not convinced that something will happen, then it will not happen and then it fails“ Gabriel Llorens Rocha, corporate communications specialist, said in radio statements.
“As the reality in Argentina is in the middle of the electoral process and the drought is not yet over, many regions of the country are experiencing… Price movement like we were on a slide,” said ROSGAN – Rosario Stock Exchange Livestock Market.
“A perfectly competitive market like the livestock and meat markets is influenced by exogenous factors that generate bullish moves and subsequent declines, although prices remain at higher levels,” he noted.
New announcements: The question of fiscal costs
“We are witnessing a very irresponsible election campaign in terms of promises or announcements,” said Jorge Vasconcelos, an economist at IERAL Fundación Mediterránea.
“The campaign shows a lot of irresponsibility, a lot of short-termism and the risk of disappointment of the population when they see that the silver plan (benefits announced by the ruling party) lasts three weeks or that dollarization cannot be carried out, or that this does not mean salaries in dollars even in a hurry,” he explained.
“The government’s measures Rebuild income Published this week increase the tax costs of the “Platita” plan over 1% of GDP, consistent with a primary deficit of over 3% of GDP this year,” estimated Delphos Investment.
“The sum of this entire package of measures obviously has one negative fiscal costs for the state government. We will closely monitor how the authorities will cover these new expenditures by the end of the year, given the weak fiscal situation and the inflation rate. “Of course it is delicate,” said economist Julián Folgar in radio statements.
“With the government’s latest measures, a primary deficit is forecast to be around 3%, which is very far from the 1.9% target set in the agreement with the government FMI. So the year ends with The deal practically collapsed” said Roberto Gerreto, economist at Fundcorp.
“Everything depended on the result Election process underway“, summarized VatNet Financial Research.
