Saturday, September 30, 2023

The EU strategy is no longer valid and it’s time to admit it

Türkiye This is anything but a real democracy. Violations of rights have become commonplace, fundamental freedoms are not respected, separation of powers is a panacea, the rule of law is a semi-fiction. and not long ago The (self) coup that served to solidify an authoritarian leader he wishes to continue on to the grave. And yet, compared to many regimes the EU has to deal with on a global chessboard, elections are held, voting takes place on a large scale, and even through manipulations, irregularities and fraud the ruling party does not win an overwhelming majority Is. Türkiye is not a democracy, it is not liberal, But it is a power, it is a neighbor, an ally and an essential partner of the European Union,

Josep Borrell says we have to learn to live with the sugar boom, and Nathalie Tosi, director of the Istituto Afari Internationale and advisor to his predecessor, Federica Mogherini, explains to him these days: The West will have to get used to living with Erdogan and accept what he can and cannot do, This may sound absurd when Erdogan has been in power since 2003.

A few years ago, 27 decided in the manner of Morgenthau and Kissinger. They faced a huge problem due to the influx of refugees and no good solution. Any compromise is a difficult or abhorrent compromise, but the alternative seemed awful. This was an acceptable flow in numerical terms (as the exodus from Ukraine in 2022 demonstrated) but impossible in political terms, and it was going to take away Schengen. So they agreed with Ankara to stop the departure of the boats in exchange for money, the reopening of accession talks and silence in the face of continuing outrage, including electoral ones as in recent weeks.

Since then, the old continent has woken up and matured, it is less innocent, but still very dependent. If the EU encouraged Ukraine when the protests began in 2014 and then backed down without knowing what to do in the face of the Russian annexation of Crimea, a decade later the response has been very different. The tone, the debate in Brussels, is much less idealistic than before and more realistic on almost all issues, starting with foreign policy.

After the strange (auto)coup of 2016, there was one denunciation after another, and the conversation froze again. But if this side has changed, the other has also changed. Türkiye is not the country of 2018. Its economy is in a dismal state, with an irrational monetary policy under the direct responsibility of the president., who puts pressure on or fires central bankers at will. Inflation is perennial and deficit is persistent. The country is divided between supporters and opponents of the president, but has also become more conservative and nationalist. Society is tired of rising prices, of politicians, but also of refugees. Yojo.

“I see three elements. The first is that it is time to reconsider the relationship between the EU and Turkey because we have been in provisional mode for too long over the years. Accession talks stalled since 2018 but no alternative framework is, just some ad hoc things. It is time to reconsider them so that they are more stable in the medium and long term. The second is foreign relations. Turkey is a NATO ally but unpredictable, with its own interests and always The alliance does not align on foreign and defense issues. The third element is how these types of competitive but not fair elections can influence European liberal leaders, such as Orban. If the EU legalizes this in practice, it will affect those that question the established order,” says Ilke Togur, a professor at Carlos III University.

Erdogan is a dictator or very close to him, with whom 27 and Washington have been able to negotiate. He’s volatile, angry, but he hasn’t sought to hit the front. He brazenly goes out handing out tickets at the polling booth door, but he doesn’t threaten to open the gates of hell every week. It has permanent tensions with Cyprus and Greece, but is a member of NATO. It blocks Sweden, but not Finland. No one believes they can enter the union anytime now, but there is no pause. The Community Institute criticizes “the serious deterioration of democracy, the rule of law, human rights and the independence of the judiciary” in its report, but Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel were going to the famous sofa incident, as Turkey is a strategic partner and in the region. a major player.

The EU cannot cut ties, nor allow Turkey to get too close to Putin, but it cannot continue to act as if the world is not moving fast enough and Turkey waiting to undergo a magical transformation. Difficulties, conflicts, challenges and crises will neither disappear now nor after Erdogan is gone. There was no miracle, no change, so it’s time to react and quickly find a way between diplomacy and pressure, money and security, threats and persuasion. Because if Ankara always takes the initiative and Europe only reacts to its goodwill or past interests, it will once again be trapped and at its mercy. The rules have changed and burying your head like an ostrich is not an option.

This new mandate may tempt some to continue with the cynical and spontaneous dynamic of criticizing, wrapping ourselves in the banner of values ​​and rights, areas over which we have little influence, while relations continue as they have been. have been Brussels is waiting to see what Erdogan does with a new mandate, albeit with minimal margins, in his internal dynamics, in the region and towards Moscow. But be assured that what is valid for a particular thing from 2015 will be valid forever It is a naive complacency, a fallacy, an error and a great danger.,

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Nation World News Desk
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