The potential for storms, heat and a drop in heat could be experienced in early April.
The spring source, which makes long-term forecasts or limits forecasts to weeks or months, is still active, so the weather scenarios are constantly changing. As we know, the months of March and April are naturally warm, but the cold fronts continue to arrive with their polar masses and this is observed in the numerical models this 2023. It will not be surprising that extreme events soon, and there will be more. so we experienced days of heat.
Last week with heat exceeding 45 °C, winds of 150 km/h and snow
As we enter the meteorological spring, the weather will be extreme, although of course the prevailing heat. The first trends of atmospheric conditions indicate that the incidence of unstable systems in our country will increase from this second week of March, more towards the middle and in the second fortnight, which also favor rains with decreasing temperatures; Health care will be vital, in addition to paying attention to outdoor conditions.
Probably weather systems
Basically, anticyclones (sunny and hot), cold fronts and channels (cloudy and rainy storms) and polar masses are the systems that dominate during Lent and even, during Holy Week itself, their combination can take place. Everything indicates that this situation will happen in 2023, starting with an anticyclone that produces a stable weather, but the tendency to change into instability.
Most of the models and scenarios are betting on the arrival of a cold front and a possible channel in the Gulf of Mexico, followed by a polar air mass, meeting with the dominant heat, a situation that will cause instability with clouds and rain/storms, in even strong winds. So far this seems to be short, but we expect that the extremes of the thermal properties and their contrast, determine the intensity of the precipitation.
❇️¿Qué condiciones típicas hay en #primavera sobre #Mexico
🌡️Domina el calor, pero el frío/nieve es probable🥶
⛈️Tormentas, granizadas y tornados en el noreste, centro, oriente y sureste🌪️
🌬️"Nortes" fuertes a severos
🥵Calor extremo 45-50°C en la Huasteca.
Más detalles👇🏽 pic.twitter.com/szp6hCPLPB
— 🥶Meteorología México❄️ (@InfoMeteoro) March 1, 2023
Major rain surely?
The CFS and CFSv2 scenarios, like the GFS group model, show precipitation in the interior slightly higher than normal (wetter) in the northern, central, eastern and southern states from Coahuila to Veracruz associated with active fronts that could be described. to be in the form of storms and hail with gusts of wind, especially in the evening hours, and in the first front. In contrast, the ECMWF model now shows unique results with a slight accumulated deficit.
In the northern region there is the potential for a cold front or vortex to cross with the Jet River, generating isolated precipitation with snow opportunities in the mountainous area of the neighboring United States and/or in the Sierra Madre Occidental such as Chihuahua and tentatively. in Volcani Transversal Volcanic Axis. In contrast, the western and southern states were generally drier.
The rains would have contracted in the middle of the eastern region, while scarcely in the west. Source: ECMWF.
Temperatures are forecast: hot and cold
The Holy Week may begin with temperatures within or below normal, that is, typical heat or slightly cooler, due to polar air masses along with the potential for rain. The states between the north, the south, the center and the south, where this condition could be observed in a more remarkable way; However, at the end of the week, they wanted to increase the slope of the bay. On average, the maximum could be around 25-30 °C in the Altiplano, and 30-35 °C in the coastal states, decreasing during the rainy season.
Less fervent at the beginning of Easter, increasing at the end of the season. Source: ECMWF.
From Meteoredus, let us continue to renew this forecast, because of the natural uncertainty due to the remoteness of time; In addition, the changes associated with the cold ENSO season, La Niña versus neutral, changing atmospheric patterns must be considered. If the current trend continues, the potential for rain will increase, so we need to know.