aAs S. Gov. Glenn Youngkin promised a “new day” in Virginia, former President Donald Trump was talking about the past in a small prison town in Arizona.
The juxtaposition between the GOP’s future—embodied to some by Youngkin, who carefully drew the line between pro-Trump and establishment Republicans to flip the governor’s seat in blue-trending Virginia—and its recent past “trump’s”. The party is particularly stark as the party, which enjoyed a 14-point swing in 2021 to gain an edge over Democrats with regard to voter registration, made gains nationally.
“It’s going to be an excellent cycle of up and down the ticket for Republicans. You really have a perfect storm,” said John Thomas, Republican strategist and president of Thomas Partners Strategies. Washington Examiner, “There is still some time in November, but if you make a historical comparison of the wave in 2010, then by almost every indicator, Republicans are now in a stronger position than in other wave years.”
US party identity shifts to Republicans in latest Gallup poll
Thomas said Republicans are performing very strongly across the board in voting. Republicans also see an edge in small-dollar donations — a possible indicator of strong Republican voter turnout in the 2022 midterm elections, he said.
Political experts offered various explanations for the change in national sentiment. Many argued that the failures of the Biden administration are the root cause of change.
“The biggest reason Republicans look so much better is because Democrats are just doing so much worse,” said Republican strategist John Fehery. Washington Examiner,
“Trump not being responsible for COVID policy is definitely helping the GOP. The blame is all Biden’s now,” he continued. “Inflation, global supply chain, crime on the streets, Russia is moving forward. All this is directly attributable to democratic incompetence. And that’s probably the biggest reason.”
Since President Joe Biden took office, his job approval has seen a drop in polling numbers in the low 30s, according to recent polls. Thomas notes that the president can either drag or pick up weak politicians in his party.
“Biden doesn’t add anything to a Democrat who needs savings right now,” Thomas said. “Part of the benefit of being a president in the White House is that you can send the president to sway the dominant swing race for your party. In this case, you want to lock up Joe and put him in the basement. And let’s hope he does. Don’t come out until after November.”
Republican strategist and Holt Communication Strategies founder Terry Holt said the GOP should focus on the Biden administration’s shortcomings in the midterm elections and stay away from intraparty squabbling.
“Biden is the driving force of GOP opinion right now. Candidates who highlight Biden’s agenda will do the best, and that will serve to back the House and Senate,” he said. Washington Examiner, “Democrats would love nothing more than to make an issue with Trump on the campaign, and we shouldn’t take the bait.”
Many Democrats across the country stuck to that Trump-era playbook, attempting to link their political opponents to the former president. One, former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe sent a tricky mailer last September showing Youngkin’s support of Trump — a tactic that ultimately failed to get McAuliffe installed in the governor’s mansion.
But Trump has largely withdrawn from public visibility during the last year. He has interviewed and continues to issue statements commenting on recent events through his Save America PAC, but even the friendly Fox News declined. Broadcast your most recent rally in full, A departure from the 2016 campaign and the days of the Trump administration, leaving it to smaller networks like OANN and Newsmax. Despite conflicting reports, Trump did not appear in Virginia to rally on behalf of Youngkin’s successful candidacy, either personally or virtually. And Trump’s Google searches have declined, reaching its lowest level in 2021 since he first announced his candidacy in 2015. Google Trends,
“Right now, the secret to recapturing power in the mid-term is to allow Democrats to focus on the ineptitude, incompetence, and terrifyingly awakened agenda,” Thomas said. “Trump, by his very nature, when he is the center of attention, diverts that attention from the bad of the Democrats. And so the fact that the former president is not front and center is an excellent thing as we go into the midterm cycle. ”
Some GOP experts suggest the party may have been served well by Trump’s reduced power on social media platforms after he was removed from Facebook, Twitter and others after the January 6 riots, adding that the former president’s There is an inability to box candidates in uncomfortable positions. proved to be a boon for the party.
“It probably helps that Trump isn’t on Twitter. He can’t tweet whatever comes to his mind, and Republicans aren’t in a position to react to it,” Feiheri said.
Ed Rogers, a Republican adviser who founded the BGR Group, argued that the dynamics of Biden commanding center stage as Trump largely lurked behind the scenes when the Democratic nominee won the White House. There was a reversal in the election. less during promotion
“Trump had to win. The incumbent president had to win. And I think he wasn’t there to essentially hide and hum Trump because of Biden’s campaign and humiliate people,” he said. Washington Examiner, arguing that Trump had good policy instincts. “On a human level, a lot of people had problems with Trump, [whereas] Biden seemed a benign choice. ,
While it appears that Trump may reap the rewards by keeping a low profile, Rogers said that “the consensus of conventional wisdom that Biden is exhausted is simply too much,” pointing to historical trends that may have kept the party in power. indicate exit. Earn profit during mid-term elections.
“I believe that what should have happened in American politics happens. The party in power loses a bunch of House seats. Treat it not only as your general loss, but as a major downdraft. To admit in – I think it’s premature. We’ll see,’ he said Washington Examiner,
The President’s party has consistently lost seats in the House in every midterm election since 1962, with only two exceptions, many in line with the extraordinary political circumstances of the impeachment of then-President Bill Clinton and the September 11 terrorist attacks.
Republicans have unveiled an aggressive approach to midterm elections, releasing a five-figure Christmas-themed ad in December that aired in districts represented by 40 of their total 57 House Democratic targets.
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Under Trump, Republicans managed to consolidate a conservative majority on the Supreme Court and implement parts of their agenda, such as tax reform. But he also lost the House, the Senate and the White House in four years. an analysis by Guardian found that Republican House candidates outnumbered Trump in most counties during the 2020 election, and he left office with a 41.1% approval rating. real clean policies gross,
A representative for Trump did not respond Washington Examiner Comment request.