The president of the Madrid Chamber of Commerce, Ángel Asensio, estimates that inflation will be between 2% and 2.5% in the second half of next year, a range that he sees as “positive” because “it is gasoline, that drives the economy.”
Asensio said this in an interview on Servimedia, in which he did not rule out that there will be fluctuations in inflation in the coming months, as was the case in March, when it fell to 3.3% from 6% in February and increased later. The latest data is the National Institute of Statistics (INE) provisional figure for August of 2.6%.
Asensio explained that the inflation that characterizes these months is supply-side and that he has chosen not to “punish” “too much” consumption, but rather that the European Central Bank (ECB) loosens monetary policy and aims for “equilibrium points”. In this sense, he said that “we have to get used to” interest rates being positive because at 0% Euribor “doesn’t make sense” and could make banking unprofitable.
He emphasized that inflation would be “braked” in the second half of last year at the threshold of 2% to 2.5% and that Euribor would fall by then without returning to negative territory. “It will take all of 2024 for it to reach the pockets of the Spaniards,” as he predicted. However, he noted that the fall in Euribor “will provide a sense of recovery in purchasing power and have a positive impact on consumption.”
Given the recovery in the price of olive oil, which according to INE data increased by almost 40% in July compared to last year, Asensio explained that the situation is linked to the drought, low production and the fact that demand exceeds supply. The oil price is rising “disproportionately”. He was convinced that the price of oil would fall with “normal” production.
Asensio stressed that this increase in the price of olive oil comes at a “bad time” as general inflation is high and families are losing purchasing power.