The consulting firms supervised by the Central Bank (BCRA). They have adjusted their forecasts upwards and expect inflation to accelerate in the coming months. This is how it arises from the ultimate Market expectations survey that the company has published. In the same report they said a Increase in the official exchange rate and a greater decline in activity.
According to the survey conducted between August 29 and 31 – that is, it takes into account the impact of the 22 percent devaluation after PASO -, Inflation will rise to 12% in September – which was estimated at 11.8% in August, before the INDEC reported that this index was at 12.4% – is and will see a slight slowdown in October and November – 9.1 and 9.4% respectively gain momentum again in December. For the last month of the year they expect an index of 13.2%. According to his analysis 2023 would end with inflation of 170%, and in the next 12 months this could reach 200%.
The index would remain at even higher levels in the first few months of 2024 – for example, they predict a 14.3% for January– but would finish next year at about 120%. inflation Only in 2025 would it reach a double-digit value again although according to the report it would always be around 50%.
In another section, the specialists analyzed the development of the official exchange rate, which rose to $350 on August 14.
According to his forecast The currency would remain flat until October before taking another jump to $405 in November and would close out the year over 500 pesos. This value is expected to continue to rise and reach $738 in February 2024.
In terms of activity, they expect 2023 to end with a 3% decline in GDP. They expect a decline of 0.6% by 2024. However, the recovery would only occur in 2025 with a growth of 3%.