Market analysts polled by the Central Bank (BCRA) expect this year to end with an inflation of 180.7%, In other words, they project it to be 11.4 points above the level they thought just a month ago.
For the worse It is a prognosis that is old before birth and, everything appears, it will be worse. It happened that, as the results of the Market Expectations Survey (REM) – within a few months – were disseminated after the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Indec) reported the CPI last month. On the other hand, those surveyed had to make their projections between September 27 and 29, that is, about two weeks before September’s inflation is known, so they are already “short” in their estimates.
They assumed a CPI of 11.7% last month, that is, a point below the 12.7% that was last reported. This, it is known, led them to recalculate their projections somewhat higher.
It reveals the futility of this instrument as a measure of expectations, especially since the BCRA authorities decided to delay the results of this survey in the running of PASO, with the excuse of errors in predictions and under the assumption that goal. improve their projections of future inflation.
“This is something you can’t do if they don’t allow you to respond to the report last month after knowing. We told them, but they don’t care,” said one of the analysts who, with increasing suspicion -two, answered the survey of the monetary entity.
According to the results released today, until a few days ago the market expected inflation of 9.5% for this month, 10.7% for November and 14% for December, months in which the two peso devaluations are expected to affect when the current freeze on the official exchange rate ends (after the elections) and when the Government changes , it should be clean. Bankruptcy of BCRA.
In turn, specialists consider that inflation in the next twelve months (September 2023 to the same month of 2024) will be 185.9%. Although this is a high value, higher than expected this year, it represents a decrease of 11.6 points compared to the calculation they made a month ago. Meanwhile, throughout next year they expect inflation to be 135.7%.
Regarding the exchange rate, The market expects the official dollar to strengthen after the election (they saw it close in November close to $ 400) until reaching $ 530 in December of this year.