The OECD published a new economic growth forecast for the Union and increased the forecast by three tenths. According to the agency, monetary policy is taking hold in economies and a weaker-than-expected recovery in China Measurements predict global expansion of 3% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2024.
“The global economy was stronger than expected in the first half of 2023, but the growth outlook is weak, inflation is proving persistent and there are significant downside risks,” the OECD said in its latest interim economic outlook.
According to the report, countries will have better economic performance. They are India, that It will be the bloc’s economy that will grow the most, with an expansion of 6.3%; then China (5.1%) and Indonesia (4.9%).
The OECD forecasts for large economies such as the USA annual GDP growth of 2.2% in 2023 and 1.3% in 2024, with a slowdown reflecting the slowdown in labor markets and, more broadly, the impact of tighter monetary policy.
GDP growth is expected in the euro area, where demand is already weak B will slow to 0.6% in 2023 and increase to 1.1% in 2024 as the negative impact of high inflation on real incomes diminishes. China’s recovery is weaker than expected after reopening post-pandemic, with projected growth of 5.1% this year and 4.6% in 2024.
In other indicators, such as inflation, overall inflation is falling due to lower energy and food prices, but is still above central bank targets in many countries. “Headline inflation in the G20 countries is expected to continue to decline gradually through 2023, from 7.8% in 2022 to 6.0% in 2023 and to 4.8% in 2024. “Core inflation remains stubborn, driven by the services sector and still relatively tight labor markets, and will force central banks in many countries to maintain a restrictive stance in their monetary policies,” the OECD report said.
