The CEO of the US bank Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, stated this Monday that the chances of the US economy entering a recession fell compared to the situation a year ago, as he advanced in an interview with ‘Hong Kong Economic Journal’.
In this way, the manager referred to the numbers advanced by the economists of his own entity, which this September reduced the twelve-month probability of the entry of the United States into recession to 15% compared to the estimated 20% that was held in July.
The probability of a’soft landing’ for the world’s leading economy will be reinforced by the resistance shown in the face of continued inflation and the subsequent increase in interest rates made by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to deal with it. In addition, this revision is due to the cooling of inflation and the strength of the labor market.
Despite this, Solomon considers that inflation will remain entrenched, although he believes that the Fed will not touch rates again this year, although they may be increased once or twice next year.
These statements correspond to the annual growth of the North American GDP of 4.9% in the third quarter, which means an expansion higher than the 2.1% in the second tranche of 2023, as reported at the end of October in the Commerce Department’s Office of Economic Analysis in its first estimate for the period.
Growth in real GDP reflects increases in consumer spending, private investment in inventories, exports, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investments. These increases were partially offset by a decrease in non-residential fixed investment and an increase in imports.
However, the first estimate of GDP data, which the Office of Economic Analysis previously recalled, was based on incomplete data that was “subject to future changes” by the agency.