The wages Cubans earn today is about half what they were two years ago When the government announced the so-called ordering task as a panacea for the country’s problems, an economic package that achieved the opposite effect was expected.
Cuban economist pedro monreal The conclusion was reached after analyzing the latest official data published by the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI), which in its summary on average wages between January and December 2022 revealed the hit taken by official policies on Cuban pockets.
“The economic package of ‘regulation’, implemented in January 2021, could serve as a scenario for a 39% decrease in the average monthly ‘real’ wage in Cuba by the end of 2022”points to montreal a thread on twitter,
“It would express the deep crisis of purchasing power of Cuban families,” he said.
But, keeping in mind that the figure presented by ONEI is 39%, the economist warned, That figure “depends on the inflation data used to adjust Which is based on the report of the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) of February 2023 in this matter.
“If the official Oneai figures were used, the result would be very different, with a ‘real’ increase of 43.3%, but It can probably be assumed that the official measure of price variation in Cuba underestimates current inflation”., he pointed. and Cubans today know that inflation has not stopped rising and that the prices of some basic necessities change within hours, while The dollar and the euro are both close to 200 Cuban pesos in the informal market.
“In any case, the official figures themselves would indicate a sudden change in the variation of ‘real’ wages over the two years, going from an increase of 82% in 2021 to a decrease of 21.3% in 2022. When adjusted with economists price data from the intelligence unit, The contraction of ‘real’ wages in 2022 (44.4%) will be double that estimated with official figures” He warns.
Monreal concluded that, despite the difference in figures, “Both projections agree that 2022 was a very ‘bad’ year for ‘real’ wages in Cuba, and 2023 could be worse.”, Because inflation has increased so far. That 2023 will be a better year is problematic,” he warned.
Similarly, experts specify that official figures on salaries “provide additional elements to understand the food security crisis in Cuba,” given “a significant relative devaluation of wages in agriculture”, in contrast to the “relative increase in wages in professional services and real estate”.
got monreal here One factor that affected Cuban agriculture was the lack of production, and therefore, the availability of food in the island’s markets.
“The relative decline of agricultural wages as a percentage of total average wages coexists with a simultaneous loss of relative weight of agricultural investment in the context of disproportionately high investment in business services and real estate,” he explains. .
“The twin crisis of relative devaluation of wages and reduction in the weight of investment in Cuban agricultural activity is not accidental. It refers to the deliberate choices of economic policy choices. The necessary change is already long overdue,” he concluded.