The Federal Reserve finished uploading interest rates and you will probably cut them off soon one percentage point next year, according to chief economists at some of America’s largest banks. deer.
Although it is likely that the US avoid an economy economic growth will slow significantly in the coming quarters, increasing unemployment and reducing inflation, according to the latest forecasts from American Bankers Association Economic Advisory Committee.
“Because of the indicated and expected progress of things inflation” The majority of Committee members believe that the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle is over,” he said Simona Mocuta chair of the 14-member panel and chief economist of State Environmental Advisors.
The US central bank is expected to keep the monetary policy rate unchanged at its meeting next week though investors are divided on whether it will raise rates by the end of the year.
Interest rates: the new bankers’ forecast
The ABA’s advisory committee includes economists from JPMorgan Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo & Co. Its forecasts are often presented by the Fed chairman, Jerome Powell and other members of the central bank board in Washington.
The committee believes that economic growth will slow at an annual rate less than 1% over the next three quarters in response to earlier Fed interest rate hikes and to tighten credit conditions according to the median of their predictions.
Unemployment is expected to up 4.4% at the end of next year, from 3.8% in August while consumer price inflation will decrease to 2.2% from 3.2% in July.
“According to the consensus of the Committee, “The chances of a soft landing have increased significantly in the short term.” Mocuta declared to the press via Zoom. “But, at the same time, it’s still there A lot of doubt about the extent to which this extraordinary strength shown by the economy at the moment is sustainable.
The Committee considers that the possibility of a recession next year is less than 50%.