Wednesday, February 8, 2023

The wars, polarisations, twists and turns that make history

January 2022 began with a verbal escalation between Moscow and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization with the United States. The focus of the dispute was Ukraine and its intention to join the Western military alliance, which would thus expand its influence and its missiles to the border with Russia, contrary to non-expansion promises made in the early 90s.

Moscow raised the tone, with the deployment of troops and military supplies for a “preventive” show of forces. And the idea that the blood would not reach the river was dismissed in late February. There, Vladimir Putin recognized independent Donetsk and Lugansk, parts of the Donbass region where the Russian-speaking majority held a self-determination referendum in 2014 following a war waged against Ukrainian nationalists. Protection of the population of Donbass and the mission to “demilitarize and denazify” Ukraine were some of the arguments Putin used when announcing “special military operations” in the neighboring country.

NATO leaders, who disguise their armed interventions with euphemisms such as “preventive war” or “democratic offensive”, characterized the Russian president’s order as an unjustified aggression. The war had started. Experts predicted a lightning operation.

More than 10 months later, the conflict continues, its end and its victor uncertain and the results do not end on the battlefield. More than 120,000 soldiers were killed between the two sides, 10,000 civilians were victims of bombings, tens of thousands were injured and eight million were displaced to give some indication of the count. Moscow’s “isolation” did not have the expected effect, although NATO can boast that now not only Ukraine, but also Sweden and Finland want to join its ranks.

European powers aligned with the White House are participating in a board dispute that is being redefined by the bombings, while in the harsh winter they suffer the boomerang effect of economic sanctions with which they sought to arm-twist Putin and Energy ended up making gas and food more expensive on a planetary scale, provoking inflation and a global economic recession.

The end of the story is yet to be written and an actor like China, which confirmed Xi Jinping at the peak of his power in 2022, gives implicit support to its strategic Eurasian partner but expresses concern about instability in Europe that could lead to its collapse. Affects your plans for. New Silk Road. Furthermore, some Russian arguments clash with the doctrine of territorial integrity used by Beijing against Taiwan. The controversy was exacerbated by US Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi with a visit to Taipei in early August.

Chile earthquake. Last summer it began and ended with a historic renovation on the other side of the mountain range. Former student leader Gabriel Boric, who won the ballot on December 19, 2021 with 55.87% of the vote, was sworn in on March 11 as the youngest president in Chilean history. The cabinet, dominated by women, seemed to be continuing calls for change following the social outcry of October 2019. Demands for equality and genuine democracy flooded the streets, challenged the repression, and led to a convention to draft a new Magna Carta. With which the last vestige of the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet was buried: the 1980 constitution.

Although the Constituent Assembly was already in session before his arrival in La Moneda, Borić took it as his challenge to have the new text approved in an exit referendum on 4 September. But the project received a disapproval from 60 percent of those consulted. The president promised to seek reform in other ways.

Now it is in the hands of the Congress to prepare a new Magna Carta. Thus, the traditional parties were ruled out in the march and there would be unwanted interference in the elections.

Colombian Winds. On June 19, Gustavo Petro became the first left-wing president in Colombia’s history, defeating conservative businessman Rodolfo Hernández in the ballot.

Petro and his deputy, Francia Marquez, the first Afro-descendant to hold that position, mobilized and dissidents to demand greater rights and equality and in favor of compliance with the peace accords signed in 2016, which Uribismo and The right wing torpedoed. ,

After taking office on 7 August, Petro reopened the border with Venezuela and met with Nicolás Maduro. In the Andean arc, the Colombian result seemed to leave only former Ecuadorian banker Guillermo Lasso out of a motley leftist axis made up of Boric in Chile, Luis Arce in Bolivia, Petro in Colombia and Pedro Castillo in Peru.

Lima Temp. Peru’s instability, marked by disputes between that country’s executive and legislative powers, on December 7 cut short the mandate that the rural teacher had begun on July 28, 2021, and was set to expire in 2026.

Castillo wanted to anticipate an attempt against him for a third and definitive vacancy by a Congress that had always been hostile to him and which he attempted to dissolve in order to call new legislative elections with constituent powers. His dismissal and the assumption of his vice, Dina Boluarte, ignited protests and confrontations in deep Peru. The crackdown has already claimed over 30 lives. Over the past seven years, Peru has had seven presidents of various signs and origins, and the bid for power has not ended.

European cold. In a continent that misses Angela Merkel, who doubts Emmanuel Macron, and who on October 22 made far-right Giorgia Meloni the first woman to rule Italy, there have been visits to pay tribute to the country’s last ruler, Mikhail Gorbachev. There was very little space. the Soviet Union. , who died on 30 August at the age of 91.

The one who had lavish funeral honors was Elizabeth II, who died on 8 September aged 96. She remained on the throne of England for 70 years and 214 days, making her second on the podium for the longest reign after Louis XIV. , As monarch, he saw 14 British presidents and 15 prime ministers pass through the White House at 10 Downing Street; From Winston Churchill to Liz Truss, billed as the new “Iron Lady” who lasted just 44 days at the helm of the UK government. Isabel II passed her crown to her son, who would be officially anointed as Carlos III this year.

Iranian veil. If we review deaths capable of mobilizing crowds or marking milestones in the future of peoples or nations, we must not ignore Masha Amini, a young Iranian of Kurdish origin who was arrested by the moral police of theocratic regime for wearing was arrested. A bad dress her veil.

Amini’s death on 16 September generated unprecedented reactions in Iran in recent decades and was repeated in the world. Despite police response, women took off their headscarves and men acceded to the girls’ demands and confronted officers in protests that left dozens dead and injured. Social discontent led to the disbandment of the moral police and raised the alarm in a country that imposes the death penalty as punishment for rebellion.

Iran, which disputes Muslims with Saudi Arabia, is the main conflict scenario for Israel, another key piece in the Middle East chess game and which restored right-wing Benjamin Netanyahu to power on Thursday. “Bibi” has already featured in serious conflicts with the Palestinians and her return has escalated tensions.

Brazilian summer. In October, the spotlight was on Brazil, where a resilient Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was facing far-right Jair Messias Bolsonaro in the presidential election.

It was this wrestling that prevented the sentences and ban imposed by once-exemplary judge Sergio Moro on the former president and union leader in 2018, the architect of the now devalued Lava Jato operation. Lula’s 580-day prison sentence and barred from being a candidate four years ago facilitated the former captain and deputy’s rise to power. Instead of handing over command to his successor today, he chose to go to the United States and encouraged undemocratic and violent demonstrations by his followers to prevent the return of the PT leader.

Since the Federal Supreme Court overturned the conviction and restored Lula’s rights in March 2021, it is known that the 77-year-old from Pernambuco will be a sixth-time presidential candidate and seek a third term, which no one achieved. did. his country.

The aggressiveness in the campaign and the polarization between Lula and Bolsonaro was already seen in the first round on October 2, when the former surprisingly obtained 48.43% compared to 43.20% of Turner, who held power.

On 30 October, Lula won his historic comeback victory with 50.90%, which equated to 60,345,999 votes, compared to 49.10 votes for Bolsonaro, who was supported by 58,206,354 Brazilians.

The ex-soldier’s reluctance to admit his defeat and his ambiguous messages afterward have encouraged the most radical Bolsonaristas, such as Donald Trump’s followers in the United States, to accuse him of fraud and even call for a coup or assault. to promote that could prevent Lula from climbing the ramp again. To get the Planalto band.

In addition to the budgetary hole, price hikes, irritable health, regression in poverty, and the inclusion and decline of the Amazon, which he regards as a “legacy”, Lula must, from today, strive to ensure that his cabinet and those in Congress New alliances serve to heal wounds. This is perhaps his toughest test.

2023 begins. Full of hope but also with the heavy backpack he carried on his back the year we said goodbye.

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