Republicans want to make a comeback in the American midterm – their chances are not bad. However, the candidate backed by Trump could outweigh the victory, which was considered certain.
On November 8, the so-called mid-term elections will be held in America. Then, among other things, the entire House of Representatives would be reelected, as well as a third of the Senate.
The smaller house of parliament is the focus for both Republicans and Democrats. There, Democrats have a majority that can hardly be diluted. Only with the vote of Vice President Kamala Harris can the party pass legislation in the Senate.
Republicans Already Prepared for a Glorious Comeback midterms, At the beginning of the summer, polls indicated it could be successful as well. However, now the times seem to be turning.
candidate in lineage
Republican Party strategists are especially hopeful for the four contesting states of Arizona, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Georgia. There, all four candidates were supported by Trump – sometimes against the wishes of the party establishment. And all of them are currently undergoing a trend reversal. This is also due to the lack of experience of Trump’s supporters.
For example, Senate candidate and former TV doctor Mehmet Oz. He never missed an opportunity to make a mistake. In one incident, he claimed to be the owner of two houses. It matches the truth. However, Oz did not mention a total of eight other properties, including a villa in New Jersey with 800 square meters of living space.
Oz has been falling in polls for weeks, with his Democratic challenger John Fetterman leading by five to eleven percentage points, according to various polls.
In Ohio, Republicans thought they had an equally good chance. But even there, Trump’s darling’s lack of campaign experience is proving to be a problem. Senate candidate and best-selling author J.D. Vance has trailed Democratic incumbent Tim Ryan in the polls by weeks.
How many kids?
In the crucial southern state of Georgia, meanwhile, Republican Senate nominee and former football player Herschelle Walker was left behind. He is now only equal to the current Raphael Warnock.
Walker made headlines in June with a special kind of fake pass after he couldn’t name the exact number of children he had. He originally said that he had a son with his ex-wife. However, it became known that he had another illegitimate son. In mid-June, his team had to officially announce that Walker had a total of three sons and a daughter.
Blake Masters, in favor of Trump, fell just as badly in Arizona after an initial surge in the polls. Now even for Democrats, the chances of defending the seat are not bad.
There can be many reasons for a trend reversal. One of these, according to observers, can be seen in the Supreme Court ruling that overturned a 50-year-old constitutional right to abortion. It mobilized democratic voters, which were seen as sluggish.
Republicans also benefited from Biden’s unpopularity among the public, which was due in no small part to strong inflation and, in particular, high gasoline prices (“It’s the economy, idiot!”).
at the mercy of others
However, they have been falling for weeks, and the US president also made a political breakthrough with his Inflation Reduction Act, even if it was bought expensively with concessions to troublemakers within the party.
But former President Donald Trump also plays an important role in trend reversal. The party has already handed itself over to the former president, for better or worse.
The most important selection criterion when supporting candidates was not political talent, but opposition from internal party critics.
former president under pressure
Things are becoming mediocre for Trump himself. The home search in Mar-a-Lago siphoned millions into the campaign coffers of the former president, who could soon re-announce his candidacy.
However, Trump is coming under increasing legal pressure. It was learned on Wednesday (CET) that Trump took over 700 confidential pages at the Mar-a-Lago estate during his tenure. Some of them are subject to the highest level of privacy.
Apart from this, the hearing on the storm of the capital will continue in September as well. He has already harmed Trump more than is usually expected. It’s quite possible that the Democrats have saved the hottest material for the grand finale.
So the chances for Democrats to capture the Senate have improved. He has now, as Elaine Karmark of the Brookings think tank writes, “turned from gloomy to cautious optimism”.
Meanwhile, more and more Republican politicians are beginning to realize that even unconditional loyalty to Trump can be inherited. Former favorite Ron DeSantis, also known as “Trump with a brain”, was one of the few prominent Republicans who did not immediately go to Trump’s side after a home search at Mar-a-Lago. Florida’s governor is also increasingly distancing himself from his political foster father.
However, DeSantis is said to have ambitions for the presidential candidacy.