Anthropogenic global warming is causing disturbances in terrestrial and inland freshwater aquatic ecosystems and marine zones in all climatic regions of Europe. One of the consequences of these disturbances is the increased risk of transmission of vector-borne diseases that affect both animal and human populations. Changes in water and temperature regimes directly influence the development of vectors and can increase the range of distribution and extend the annual periods in which they operate.
Among these diseases is rabies, a vector-borne zoonotic disease caused by different species of the genus Dirofilaria. of which D. merciless and D. repens are the greatest. Canids and felines, both domestic and wild, act as the last team, killing mosquitoes of the genera Culex spp., Aedes spp. and Elephants spp. as a passenger In addition, humans can also be infected, in the same areas where microfilaremic receptors exist, resulting in heart disease in humans.
It is a cosmopolitan disease, located mainly in tropical and semitropical regions, areas most sensitive to climate change, where changes in distribution patterns are observed. In Europe, its presence is constantly expanding, and it is now endemic in the southern and north-central regions. Its distribution is directly linked to the presence of vectors, whose life cycle is in turn closely linked to the existence of bodies of fresh water (rivers, irrigated lands and areas of stagnant water) and climatic factors (humidity and temperature), with the melting season. larvae in the vector shorten as the ambient temperature increases.
In Spain and Lusitania the disease is considered endemic, where the prevalence is not equal throughout the territory. In Spain, the prevalence of D. impetigo in dogs is 6.47%, and the seroprevalence in cats is 9.4%. In Portugal, published studies on dogs show a prevalence between 0.9% and 27.3%, being higher in the south.
The objective of the study carried out in Spain is to propose a quantitative risk of infection by Dirofilaria spp., using the key variables potential distribution of suitable habitats Culex pipiens through a calculated ecological model (ENM) and the potential number of Dirofilaria spp.
In addition, the impact of the possible climatic conditions of the future seasons of the 2040s, 2060s and 2080s was evaluated, resulting in a model of the prevalence and geolocation of D. dogs relentless pestilence from all provinces and regions. The risk of Dirofilaria spp. It was raised throughout the peninsula and the Balearic Islands except for the highest altitude areas.
The authors of the study, Iván Rodríguez, Ricardo E. Hernández, José Ángel Sánchez, Manuel Collado, Patricia Pérez and Rodrigo Morchón, all belonging to the University of Salamanca, explain that “these events indicated that the Iberian Peninsula and the entire Balearic Islands were at risk of infection”.
PROJECTIONS FOR 2040, 2060 and 2080
The authors found a strong and positive relationship between the risk of heart disease and the population of infested dogs observed in the study area, so that most of the positives (georeferenced records of dogs infected by D. immitis) are in the Iberian and Balearic peninsulas. Islands are located in areas of high/medium risk of infection.
A model of adipiscing players to Cx. pipens in the geographical area of the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands which represent a suitable location.
The results of “our future projections under climate change scenarios have revealed the displacement of the current Cx- scope. Piping to new ends. By 2040, the profit percentage of the territory of this carrier in the peninsula will not be less than 27.87%, and the profit will be 44.53% and 49.98% for 2060 and 2080 projections respectively”.
This means, they explain, a sharp increase in its potential area, especially at the shore of the peninsula, which will result in a greater risk of infection by Dirofilaria spp. in the same places.