Thursday, September 28, 2023

Tropical wave observed with 40 percent chance of cyclone development in seven days

The National Hurricane Center in Miami (NHC) reported this Sunday that a tropical wave still in Africa has a medium chance of becoming an organized system.

In its tropical outlook bulletin, the organization said the tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Wednesday.

“A gradual development will be possible. “A tropical depression could form later this week or next weekend as the system moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic,” the NHC said.

The probability of occurrence in the next 48 hours is low at 0 percent, while it is medium at 40 percent in the next seven days.

If favorable conditions for its development are achieved, i.e. deep ocean water above 80° Fahrenheit, humidity, and low vertical wind shear, it would become the sixteenth low pressure system of the 2023 season.

On the other hand, the agency is also monitoring the fifteenth tropical depression (AL97) in the center of the Atlantic Ocean, which so far does not pose a threat to Puerto Rico.

Regarding this disturbance, models have shown consensus that movement will occur toward open waters without endangering land. However, it is not excluded that the phenomenon has an indirect impact on marine and coastal conditions.

The NHC continues to issue bulletins on Tropical Storms Margot and Nigel, both well northeast of the Caribbean.

What does it take for a system to be classified as a tropical depression, storm, and hurricane?

For a system to be classified as a tropical depression, it must have a closed circulation but maximum sustained surface winds of less than 39 miles per hour, according to the NHC. If the winds then exceed this threshold, it becomes a tropical storm and is given a name.

Later, when atmospheric and marine conditions are favorable and wind speeds exceed 74 miles per hour, it is called a hurricane. At that time, the Saffir-Simpson scale was used to divide the strength of the system into five categories based on wind strength.

The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1st and ends November 30th. In the Eastern Pacific, however, it runs from May 15th to November 30th.

Nation World News Desk
Nation World News Desk
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