Republican presidential candidate and former Gov. Nikki Haley is vowing to continue her campaign against front-runner Donald Trump through Super Tuesday contests at least into early March, but a state-level Morning Consult survey shows That’s a foolish thing to do.
Trump is lagging his competition across the board, according to the latest tracking of the GOP nomination race in 23 states, including Haley’s home state of South Carolina. January 23-Feb. 4 polls, which were conducted after Florida Governor Ron DeSantis ended his campaign and endorsed Trump, suggest the former president already has at least a hand in the party’s nomination — and perhaps Two -.
Let’s start in South Carolina, where Trump leads Haley 68% to 31% among likely Republican primary voters, which includes any registered voter in the state who said they plan to vote in the state’s upcoming February 24 Republican primary. Making plans. That’s far beyond the poll’s margin of error of 5 percentage points, and suggests Haley is headed for a firefight in her own backyard.
Unfortunately for Haley, our data suggests things will get even worse as she heads toward Super Tuesday on March 5, when conservatives in many states across the country are expected to go to the polls and deliver landslide victories for Trump. Looks ready.
Of the Super Tuesday states we’re tracking, Haley is best positioned to garner support in Massachusetts and North Carolina with 28% and 23%. But it seems implausible that she’ll even win there: Trump leads by 41 points in the Bay State among likely GOP primary voters, and by a whopping 54 points in the Tar Heel State.
It’s a familiar refrain in states at the bottom of the calendar for Republican nomination races. From Arizona to Wisconsin — with Florida, Georgia and Ohio in between — at least three-quarters of likely Republican primary voters in each state say they plan to vote for Trump in their state’s nominating contest. .
What does this mean for 2024
It appears that wealthy Republican donors, who continue to fund Haley’s campaign, are also able to burn their cash. Only a few votes remain to be counted in this race, making it certain that Trump will get a lot more than Haley’s relatively low number of votes.