Trump’s victory in the polls will change the world economy Millennium Group

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Trump's victory in the polls will change the world economy Millennium Group

On November 19, 1919, the rejected the Treaty of Versailles. In that decision, he withdrew his power to continue the agreement after the First World Warwhich left this task to the British and French, who lacked the will and means to do it.

He followed the World War II THEN EU have a more productive role. Today, the world is still, in many ways, the one that creates deer. What else could it be? What comes next? The outcome of the presidential election may answer these questions, decisively and dramatically.

Recent polls suggest that nearly 55 percent of American voters disapprove of Joe Biden’s performance. Also Trump was slightly ahead of Biden in direct polls before the election, a year away. Finally, suggesting that Trump is ahead of Biden in five of the six major “battleground” states. In the end, a Trump victory is clear and frighteningly plausible.

What does this mean? The most important answer is that EUnot only the most powerful democracy in the world, but also his savior of the 20th century, no longer committed to democratic norms. The most fundamental is that power must be won through free and fair elections. Whether US presidential elections are “fair” is debatable, but they have rules. The efforts of the ruler of power to overthrow those rules are like an insurrection. That Trump is trying to do so is not debatable. Nor the absence of evidence of fraud supporting his coup attempt, he was charged; but, he can still win a presidential election. One reason it can do this is about 70 percent of people who identify themselves as republicans They believe their lies. It’s surprising, but unfortunately, not all that surprising.

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¿What will another Trump presidency mean for the US? more than supporting someone who tried to subvert the Constitution? Obviously, the answer is ddepends in part on the balance of Congress; However, it would be a mistake to take more comfort from how he behaved last time. So he relies on relatively traditional figures from the military and business. Next time it will be different. Make America Again (swelling) is now a sect with many believers.

and Trump’s internal plan is crucial es replace career civil service officers with servants loyal to the president. The pretext is the supposed existence of a “deep state,” how critics refer to well-informed public career officials whose loyalty is to the law and the state, not to the person in power. One reason this is bad is that modern government cannot function without such people. The most compelling reason is that if the intelligence, national security and internal tax service, the army, the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Department of Justice are under the whim of the head of state, we are facing an autocracy. Yes, it’s that simple. With a vindictive boss, abuse of power is rampant. This is not the EU we know, it will be more like Hungary under Viktor Orbán’s government or even Turkey under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

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What does this mean for the world? Most obviously, US support for a person and a party that openly rejects the central tenets of liberal democracy. It discourages those who believe in it and encourages despots and their poor everywhere. It is hard to overstate the impact of that betrayal on the US.

The combination of this despair with Trump’s transactional approach will undermine the trust on which US alliances are based. The Americans are right to condemn the opportunistic behavior of many of their allies. The Europeans (including the UK) need to do more, but the alliance needs a leader and the US needs to be one. With Russia threatening Europe, and China as a competitor, alliances will be more important than ever. Trump doesn’t understand this and he doesn’t care.

Then there are implications for World economy. Trump has proposed introducing a blanket 10 percent tariff on all imports. This would be a contemporary (albeit milder) version of the Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930. It would certainly lead to retaliation and cause great damage to World Trade Organizationby reneging on commitments to reduce tariff barriers for decades.

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The impact on efforts to address climate change is likely to be just as significant. Many measures in Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act are likely to be rolled back. Of equal importance would be a possible US withdrawal from efforts to promote clean energy investment in developing and emerging countries.

Las The future relationship with China must also be in doubt. The changes here may not be as dramatic, as opposition to China’s growth is bipartisan, but opposition to China has little to do with ideology under the Trump administration, which ignores the differences between autocracies and democracies. Choose the first one. It will be a competition for power, where Trump will try to keep the United States number one. It is not clear how different things will be. Trump may try to turn Russia against China, as Nixon did with China against the Soviet Union. Leaving Ukraine will be their bait.

A second Trump presidency may not destroy the country forever, but they and the rest of the world will lose their innocence. We have to come to terms with the reality that the US has re-elected a man who has openly tried to subvert its democracy. Impeachments against Trump may save the day, but the faint hope underscores the current threat to democracy.

Financial Times Limited. Declaration 2021