UK pandemic modelers say future big waves of COVID-19 are possible

UK pandemic modelers say future big waves of COVID-19 are possible

People queue at a COVID-19 vaccination center in London on December 15, 2021.Hannah McKay / Reuters

There is a real possibility of large waves of COVID-19 infections in the UK in the future and such waves may also be considered likely, epidemiologists have said to inform government advice Let’s model the 19 pandemic.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has lifted legal restrictions in England, saying that, while the pandemic was not over, Britain will have to learn to live with COVID-19.

The Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modeling, Operational Sub-Group (SPI-MO) stated that the emergence of new viral variants was the biggest unknown factor in the medium to long term, along with decreased population immunity and changes in admixture patterns.

“Large future waves of infections that require proactive management to prevent damaging pressure on the health and care sector have, at a minimum, a realistic possibility (high confidence) or probability (moderate confidence),” SPI-MO said in a statement. said in the consensus statement. Friday.

Britain has reported 157,730 deaths from COVID-19, the seventh highest globally, and Johnson has faced heavy criticism for his handling of the pandemic, which has seen three national lockdowns.

The Omicron edition late last year sparked a new high in infections, prompting Johnson to restart some limited measures, but deaths did not rise at the same pace.

He has now fully reopened the economy, breaking the link between infections and deaths, citing the country’s program of booster shots, the availability of antivirals and the low severity of the Omicron version.

England returned to Plan A last week, and the chairman of the SPI-MO told Reuters that every year while the COVID situation improves, there are times when the government has to go backwards and introduce measures.

“The next few years will be extremely uncertain, and future outbreaks and waves will likely be noisy,” the SPI-MO statement said.

“A stable, predictable pattern … may be many years away.”

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