A few months Since the start of the US election campaign, the outlook is uncertain about a Republican victory (GOP) or, failing that, the continuation of the current Democratic administration (DNC) in English). However, the Republican primary campaign shed light on the policies of its leading candidates.
Panorama general. The GOP has already begun the primary process with the first debate, held on August 23; the second, which will be held on September 27, and the third, whose date has not yet been determined.
- GOP voters have made their primary favorites clear: Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley and Mike Pence. According to the latest polls, Trump leads the race with 57% approval, followed by DeSantis, with 14%.
- As for the Democrats, the picture is clear: President Joe Biden is the leading favorite (66.4%), leading by almost 55 points over his closest opponent, Robert F. Kennedy Jr (11.7%). .
- Everything seems to indicate that the 2024 election will be a repeat of the November 2020 election, moreover, with a technical tie in the polls.
On the radar. While President Trump is considered one of the most radical candidates on the issue of immigration, alternatives within the GOP appear to be in line with his policies and, in some cases, have more extreme proposals.
SUBSCRIBE TO OUR POLITICS NEWSLETTER
- DeSantis, the second favorite, has proposed measures such as eliminating birthright citizenship for the children of illegal immigrants – originally proposed by Trump – as well as the use of lethal force on the border patrol, to reduce the fentanyl smuggling crisis. .
- Ramaswamy, for his part, proposed policies such as the militarization of the Mexican border, in addition to the deportation of minor migrants, which would enable a process for returning to the US through legal means.
- Both Nikki Haley and Mike Pence have expressed their intention to return to Trump’s immigration policies, of which Pence has been a critic since 2021: ending the construction of the border wall; eliminate “sanctuary cities”; continue asylum applications from outside the United States, avoiding, however, family separation.
Why is it important? In early 2020, the United States reduced encounters between border agents and illegal immigrants to a historic low of 16,182 encounters per month. The most recent data estimates that, currently, there are up to 206,239 monthly meetings.
- The fentanyl epidemic – from Mexico – in the United States, which has contributed to historic peaks in overdose deaths, has become an important factor in influencing voter preferences.
- Tightening immigration measures has become the main proposal within the GOP to limit the supply of fentanyl in the country.
- While the polls are too close to determine a winner, Trump’s popularity (and therefore his proposals) has been little affected by the legal proceedings against him.
The balance. The US is going through an immigration crisis after four years of Democratic government, which has stopped caring about the plight of people crossing the border. While Alexandria Ocasio Cortéz, a Democratic congresswoman, has been very critical of Trump and the construction of the border wall, she has not visited the site again since Biden took power, indicating the low priority of the issue for the DNC.
- A new government of Joe Biden clearly represents the continuation of current immigration policies, which reinforce the stigma in America of Latino migrants, due to their association with the fentanyl epidemic, and others reasons.
- While Trump is considered the anti-illegal immigration standard-bearer, the stance of his Republican opponents is the same or even more aggressive than him, showing that Trump is not a phenomenon in itself, but its first manifestation.
- The vision for the region, if the GOP wins, will represent a difficult fight against illegal border crossings, but a better institutionalization of migration mechanisms through legal channels.
