Due to stock market reasons, the top 10 new car makers in the United States have seen their stock prices decline since the beginning of 2022. Eight out of 10 of those sold fewer cars than in 2021.
According to Cox Automotive’s analyst forecast for full-year 2022 sales, GM’s sales for the year will reach 2.25 million vehicles, up 2.3% from 2021 sales.
However, the next eight automakers are expected to sell fewer units this year.
The group includes Toyota Motor Corp., down 9.0% year-on-year with sales of about 2.12 million units; Ford Motor Co., down 2.9% with sales of 1.84 million units; and Stellantis NV, down 13.2% with estimated sales of 1.54 million units.
At number 10, Tesla Inc. is estimated to sell around 525,000 units, up 48.9% year-over-year. However, and hardly at all, Tesla’s share price is down nearly 69% with only two more trading days left in 2022. (Now’s a great time to buy Tesla stock.)
Cox forecasts total sales for the year to fall to 13,860,055 units, an 8% decline compared to 2021 sales.
Here’s a chart showing year-over-year sales figures along with the decline in stock price. The chart is presented in descending order of stock price change.
|producer||2022 sales||Change||market share||The percentage of rise or fall of your shares in the stock market|
The outlook for 2023 is muted, to say the least.
Cox Automotive cites the trends that analysts believe will shape new and used car sales in the coming year.
Slow growing economy with high risk of recession. Cox calls it “the worst-case scenario for the auto industry”.
The high inventory of new vehicles is likely to increase further. Supply chain issues are being worked out, but “stronger production levels and weaker demand will lead to higher days supply and ultimately more vehicle purchase options.”
Retail sales will decline even though new vehicle sales are expected to rise 3% year-over-year to about 14.1 million units.
Growing fleet sales will drive volumes, but a shrinking group of consumers faces constraints such as a lack of “close to new offerings” and rising new car prices.
Electric vehicle (EV) sales in the US will exceed one million units next year. More options and federal incentives will motivate buyers.
Used car values will drop sharply.
Cox analysts expect used car price trends to normalize in the second half of the year as tight wholesale supply supports used prices and used retail prices decline in their normal relationship with new prices.
Affordability is the biggest consumer challenge.
Higher vehicle prices coupled with higher loan rates have pushed monthly payments for new car buyers to a record high in 2022.
Cox says automakers will increasingly cater to the new-vehicle market with more expensive products for higher-income consumers, leaving less affluent and higher-risk buyers to find affordable vehicle payments that meet monthly budgets. Will struggle
Cash offers will increase.
Wealthy buyers would rather pay cash to buy a new car, putting a strain on the dealer’s finances and interest income.
Dealer service volume and revenue will increase.
Despite the potential downturn, car service operations have enough pricing power and consumer demand to drive substantial increases in average ticket sizes.
Half of all car buyers will use at least one digital tool during the buying process. Digital shopping as a whole is expected to remain only a small part of the business.
Fleet buyers will avail incentives to buy electric vehicles. Cox said recent research indicates that nearly two-thirds of fleet buyers are considering EVs this year, with less than half in 2021.