Thursday, February 2, 2023

US election poll: Biden at stake for control of Congress

With less than a day left before the midterm elections in the US, Republicans still do not have a guaranteed majority. Lok Sabha And they’ve advanced a little bit in the Senate. A win in both chambers could give him control of Congress on November 8, though Democrats still have some chance of retaining the Upper House, It summarizes, in broad strokes, surveys of midterm elections that transcend national politics. The current president, Joe Biden, arrives with a touched popularity, the election promises to be particularly close and there will be two major issues: the economy and abortion.

Las Chances of Republican victory in both houses According to the latest estimates of the US media, during the last month there has been an increase in five thirty eight, But, after a week of intense campaigning, former President Donald Trump’s formation still does not have a majority in the lower house, as polls predicted days ago. What seems certain in the elections is that ruling party will lose delegatesThis is quite common in legislative elections. The Democrats’ lead is shrinking in the battle for control of the Senate, but they still have some chance of a significant majority for a Biden administration.

Here are some of the key 2022 ‘mid-term’ surveys:

Republican victory in the House remains insecure

When registered Americans of voting age and voting rights go to the polls on Nov. 8, the majority will vote for a Republican congressman. Here’s what comes out of a daily simulation with over 40,000 possible election results from surveys conducted by the website Specialist in American Politics five thirty eight, Now the victory of former President Donald Trump’s party is not guaranteed.

Joe Biden’s Democrats, who currently hold a majority of just eight seats, are losing the race. Too, The president comes to this electoral appointment with a disapproval of his management of more than 50%that which can be punished in elections, voted according to the opinion of the majority of the electorate Pew Research Center, “With the Supreme Court’s ruling on abortion and the location of classified documents at Trump’s Florida residence this summer, the wind was blowing in the Democrats’ favor. But, over the past two weeks, everything seemed to focus on a topic Back to support those who do not: Inflation and the economy”, Datos, chief researcher for the United States of the Elcano Royal Institute, Carlota García, tells RTVE.

Therefore, the battle is still open, according to the latest polls, with a very close polling intention between the two sides and 10% undecided.

intermediate cities will be decisive

between bench show that Democratic vote in cities and Republican vote in rural areas It will be retained in 2022, so the vote of the intermediate population will be crucial. so much that five thirty eight He estimates that the Chamber’s result will be resolved in just over a dozen districts, almost all featuring a host of suburban populations.

As this map shows, of the 435 districts that make up US electoral geography, there are only 12 for which projections do not give a clear winner. a district of Iowa and others Oregon, who in recent days chose Republicans, is back on the air. If current predictions hold, Republicans need only one of those to pass a House majority. (118 seats). Furthermore, one in five people who attend the Joe Biden party are uninsured.

Democrats and Republicans are evenly matched in two districts of Texasone of Virginia and others Nevadaaccording to the model Murali Adtis, Other media projections don’t seem to break the tie in the Rio Grande Valley: Democrat Michelle Vallejo is up against Republican favorite Monica de la Cruz, while Mayra Flores (Rep.) and Vicente Gonzalez (Dem.) project equal chances of winning. We do. ,

The presidential party has sympathies in this area latino voters, Despite being a minority, only half of them have the right to vote, according to the latest census data, the highest increase in the country in recent years. However, according to a poll by the Center, they represent 32% of voters in Texas and view the Democratic Party’s concern and effort to get their ballots positively. bench,

With the most tied districts with no clear winner, the party of Biden has consolidated votes in California and New YorkWhere it is possible that it will win one seat more than expected. However, the Democratic Party is being weighed down by the decision of 30 congressmen not to seek re-election. Even winning all 11 air districts would not guarantee victory. The picks favor him in only eight of them and his most likely move is in the seventeenth. Pennsylvania.

Except for Oregon and Iowa, Republicans count territories in Pennsylvania and California To get a majority in the House of Representatives. One of ten Republicans to vote in favor of impeaching former President Trump in January 2021 following his attack on Congress, David G. Valado is one of the top picks to win the seat on the East Coast.

Senate majority will be decided by three seats

“Give me two more Democratic senators,” President Biden pleaded at a Democratic Committee national event last September. While they will not be enough to impose his entire agenda, his party believes it needs at least 52 seats out of the 100 that make up executive committee to control it with a loose and unblocked majority, Right now, polls since mid-October are giving him two fewer, and the Republican Party has advanced by one seat in the past week. after estimates of five thirty eightThe likelihood of this scale tipping toward the Democratic side is very similar to the likelihood of it tipping to the Republican side.

In this tight scenario, Election can decide three seats, As the following map shows, Republicans, who have strengthened Marco Rubio’s re-election chances in Florida, will hold 20 of the 21 seats they previously held and are now up for renewal. For their part, Democrats would lose two of the 14 they currently hold. Seats are at stake in this technical contest Georgia, Nevada and PennsylvaniaWho are called to decide the election.

Georgia is the most divided state, where candidates from both parties are African-American, equal to one-third of likely voters. Democrat Raphael Warnock, who is trailing in the polls, has the advantage of trying to regain the position he lost in the 2021 special election. He faces former football player Herschelle Walker. An anti-abortionist who garnered former President Donald Trump’s endorsement after the primaries has been embroiled in controversy after it was revealed that he paid for the termination of his ex-girlfriend’s pregnancy.

In NevadaRepublicans haven’t won a Senate race since 2012, but the dice haven’t been cast yet. former Republican prosecutor Adam Laxalt has Chance to remove Democratic lawyer from power Catherine Cortez Masto, whom he had already replaced as head of the state prosecutor’s office in 2015. The polls give him a slight advantage, but there are elements that play against him. From the American outlet Politico, they do not rule out the Democrat’s re-election based on Laxalt’s failure to try to become governor four years ago and the good collection of Cortez’s campaign.

candidate of Pennsylvania John Fetterman held the key to giving control of the Upper House to the Democrats that Biden yearns for. the polls are still in his favor, but They no longer predict color changes in these elections, Opposite him is surgeon Mehmet Oz, who is trying to hold the trail that has kept his party colleague Pat Tomei in office for the past two terms. Oz has also questioned the state of health of his opponent, who is still recovering from a stroke.

8% districts can change color

Apart from the districts running in the air, more than thirty seats can change their political color on November 8. On the one hand, 21 districts spread across the country could move from Democratic to Republican hands. On the other hand, 13 could have gone the other way.


To expand on this information, estimates made by five thirty eight, whose data can be downloaded openly. This website specializing in political analysis compiles historical results and predictions from nearly a dozen polls to conduct various simulations of Election Day. The results of this analysis are used to determine the probability and frequency with which each party and each candidate can win the election. DatosRTVE has decided to use a “deluxe” version of this model, which calculates 40,000 different scenarios.

On maps, the color of each state or district is based on probability data. For a seat to be considered safe, a party must win it more than 95% of the time. A win is considered probable if the probability remains above 60% without crossing the previous threshold, and an open or “airborne” scenario is considered when the model produces fewer results. The percentage shown when selecting states and districts is an average of polls: a projection of the result each party could achieve in the elections on November 8.

In addition to this model, DatosRTVE took into account estimates from other independent polling firms such as the Pew Research Center, Cook Political Report, Cook Partisan Voter Index, Politico and Inside Elections for this analysis. Results from past elections are sourced from the MIT Election Data + Science Lab, an open data project at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

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