The United States Department of Agriculture, USDA, has already made its first estimates of world olive oil production for the next 2023/24 campaign, for which it estimates 3.20 million tonnes, a quarter of this year’s historically low harvest. This represents an increase of 24% compared to . And that puts it at about the same level as the five-year average of 3.14 million tonnes, according to Olimarca. According to the USDA, there will be a significant rebound in production in the producing countries of the European Union and will be responsible in large part for the increase in world yields. In this sense, they estimate that the EU will produce 2.03 million tonnes in 2023/24, compared with 1.50 million tonnes in 2022/23 and slightly above the five-year average of 2 million tonnes.
However, they stress that this recovery will largely depend on flower conditions and rainfall levels in the coming weeks and fall. Furthermore, they also point out that this increase in production could also be driven by new plantations that would come into production in the next campaign.
In parallel, the USDA has estimated that production in Tunisia is expected to reach 250,000 tonnes in 2023/24, compared to 180,000 tonnes in 2022/23. The projected harvest will also be about 10% higher than the five-year average of 228,000 tonnes.
Similarly, the forecast for Turkey is for a decline to 280,000 tonnes, down from last year’s record of 380,000 tonnes but still about 14% higher than the previous five years’ average of 246,400 tonnes.
Looking ahead, the USDA anticipates that production will increase over the long term due to continued efforts by governments to plant more trees and promote more efficient agricultural practices, including mechanized harvesting and drip irrigation.