Tuesday, August 9, 2022

US Republicans: Hope for Trump, Fear Trump

Status: 07/09/2022 at 12:02 PM

is he or not? In the United States, there is growing speculation that former President Trump may soon announce his candidacy again. Republicans have mixed feelings.

Von Julia Custine, ARD—Studio Washington;

Dick Wadhams was the leader of the Republican Party in Colorado for many years. The 66-year-old voted for Donald Trump twice and still thinks he’s a pretty good president. Still, he says: “I shudder at the thought that Trump may announce his candidacy soon!” Trump’s behavior since losing the election, especially since January 6, 2021, is “disgusting,” Wadham says.

As counterintuitive as the idea may be for Republicans, Wadham is convinced Trump will announce his candidacy very soon – and he is not alone: ​​US media report that Trump has told his closest advisers that he is about to do so and Can do this even through your social network “Truth Social” without any advance notice.

too many negative headlines

Darrell West, a political scientist at the liberal think tank Brookings, says the former president wanted to divert attention from the continuing negative revelations by the Commission of Inquiry on January 6 – and slow down other potential candidates.

Trump knows some prominent Republicans are considering running. He “wanted to make a bet and say: ‘If you want the nomination, you have to get ahead of me first.’ And that’s a big hurdle.”

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Consistently High Approval Ratings

Trump’s inner-party support is still high: with an 80 percent approval rating, more than 60 percent of Republicans believe his lies about a “stolen election.” And in polls, the former president is well ahead of potential opponents like Florida Governor Ron de Santis or former Vice President Mike Pence.

The political scientist hails from a rural district in West Ohio, where he still has many friends. 78 percent of people in his home county voted for Trump in 2020. But now the mood there is slowly changing, says West:

People there like Trump’s politics. Their attitude, their rudeness, their unpleasantness they didn’t like, because they know it creates a lot of stuff. Your ideal candidate for 2024 would be someone who supports Trump’s policies but is a good person.

hope for another era

Wadham of Colorado also believes that more and more Republicans will want to leave the Trump era behind for good: “Trust me: Donald Trump still has a huge loyal base in the Republican Party, and he will follow him wherever he goes.” But I think a lot of other Republicans think we need a new champion for 2024.”

How do swing voters behave?

Party strategists fear what Trump’s candidacy for November’s midterm elections will mean. For example, in Colorado, there are more than 40 percent of so-called independent voters who do not feel that they belong to a party. Many of them had recently voted democratically, but were disappointed at the top due to the huge inflation in the country. So Republicans will actually have a good chance with him, Wadham believes.

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With the consequences: “If Trump announces his candidacy, it will redefine the Republican Party as the party of Trump and the party of electoral conspiracies. It will harm us. apparently back in the arms of Democrats.”

Trump still busy

Trump himself has yet to publicly commit himself: He bombards his e-mail subscribers every day, asking for donations or taking part in surveys to take the pulse of his supporters.

In right-wing cable broadcaster Newsmax, he recently said that he would explain himself at the right time.

strategy can work

Ultimately, his critics also prove that Trump’s strategy can work: Republican Wadham, for example, doesn’t want to rule out the possibility that he will vote for him a third time in 2024, when Trump is actually the Republican nominee. .

Because he finds potential alternatives, whether Biden or another Democrat, even worse: “I hope against all hope that a Republican like me will never have to make that choice.”

Will he announce his candidature soon? Speculation about Trump 2024

Julia Custine, ARD Washington, July 8, 2022 at 12:09 pm

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