Saturday, December 03, 2022

USA: Why do most Democrats not want Biden to be re-elected?

That President Joe Biden is having a bad time is something that was already known.. However, a new survey of The New York Times newspaper and Sienna College published this Monday calculated the deep abyss in which it finds itself.

(Read here: Work in the United States increased in June and unemployment remains)

An abyss that only the most unpopular presidents in US history have occupied and into which he has apparently fallen because not even his own party supports him.

According to the Times-Sienna poll, only 33% of Americans approve of her performance. This is the lowest figure he has achieved since becoming president and which only five other leaders of the country have passed: Harry Truman in 1952, when he considered the possibility of a third term in the White House; Richard Nixon (1974), in the days leading up to his resignation over the Watergate scandal; Jimmy Carter, in 1979, after taking over the US embassy in Iran; George H. Bush (1992), months before being defeated by Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush, after the landslide victory of Barack Obama in 2008.

Biden, in fact, hit rock bottom that Donald Trump didn’t hit even at the worst moment of his term, when he faced an impeachment trial in January 2021 after his supporters violently took over Capitol Hill to try to keep him in power.

While the disapproval among Republicans is almost absolute — somewhat predictable — the terrible numbers Biden accumulates are a consequence of his deteriorating image among Democrats and so-called independents.

Based on the sample, 64% of Democrats do not want him to seek re-election and say they would prefer a different candidate.

While 70% of his party still supports him — according to the Times poll — that’s a pretty low number for a president in his own community, which generally tends to be between 80 and 90% at least.

Among independents, their disapproval is 64%. Very high compared to the 2020 election results, elections in which the vote was taken by 52% of this segment of the electorate.

Worse still, and according to this same survey, only 13% believe the country is heading in the right direction.

To put this last number into context, it is the lowest in the history of this type of measurement and can only be compared to that achieved during the 2008 economic crisis, caused by the implosion of the real estate market.

When Americans were asked about the most crippling problem facing the country, 35% indicated the state of the economy and inflation.

High product prices are one of the concerns of Americans.

Two factors that undoubtedly explain the delicate moment of the American president. While its popularity dipped into negative territory in August of last year after the chaotic pullout from Afghanistan, the numbers continued to decline as inflation soared, a hypersensitive issue as it hits Americans directly in the pocketbook.

When Biden took office in January 2021, inflation in the country was 1.4%. The last available figure, from May 2022, was 8.6%, the highest number in more than three decades. And it is expected that the one for June, which will be known this Wednesday, July 13, will be the same or even higher.

To a large extent, this is a phenomenon for which Biden is not responsible and which economists attribute, among other things, to the stimulus packages that were passed during the Trump administration and later at the beginning of Biden to deal with the covid-19 pandemic and the threat of recession it brought with it.

Likewise, the infarction of production chains, which raised the prices of many products and the high cost of energy, which has soared since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

In just one year, the average price of a gallon in the United States has gone from an average of $3 to more than $5, an increase of more than 60% that has contributed to rising prices across all sectors of the economy.

Its popularity is even worse among those under 30 years of age. In this group, 90% are opposed to seeking reelection.


Although the unemployment rate in the country is one of the lowest in history (3.6%), wages have not increased at the same rate as the cost of living.

Despite them, Americans continued to spend, which led to the increase in interest rates announced by the Federal Reserve a few days ago as a strategy to try to contain inflation.

But, as is often the case in this type of situation, the electorate tends to punish the leaders of the day, so these are dynamics that are beyond their control.

For Biden, perhaps the most heartbreaking number in the recent Times poll is what it has to do with his political future.

Based on the sample, 64% of Democrats do not want him to seek re-election and say they would prefer a different candidate. In fact, only 25% of this community wants to be represented again in the 2024 elections.

Its popularity is even worse among those under 30 years of age. In this group, 90% are opposed to seeking reelection.

A grim scenario for a president who has already announced that he will seek the party’s nomination for a second term.

And criticism is on all levels. 33% think Biden, at 79, is already too old to remain in power. Another 12% think he won’t be able to defeat the candidate the Republicans pick and 10% think he’s not liberal enough.

Interestingly, the same poll shows that a majority of Americans preferred a second Biden term to a Trump return to power.

Still, Biden’s current numbers bode ill, with just four months to go before the midterm elections in November, when control of the House and Senate will be at stake.

Although the president’s name is not on the ballot, his low popularity can negatively affect party candidates.

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