Wednesday, June 7, 2023

Valdivieso analyzes Boric’s scenario after the elections

Cristian Valdivieso, Criteria’s founding partner and director of public affairs for the firm, says that “what the president can’t do is stay stuck in the slide, so to speak. That is to say, maintain his turn toward the center and to remain at an intermediate point without going up or down, deciding whether to devote himself to the administration or not”.

– Is it likely that President Borić is one of the biggest victims politically after May 7?

—First of all, the president somehow solidifies his already lame duck status. Borić lost power because his government was second rated in the election and the vote was low and poor. The two official lists resulted in a loss of about 1 million votes compared to what was accepted at the time. And it has a second corollary that relates to the fact that the president loses part of the social legitimacy of his government, losing power in front of citizens and within his own coalition.

-PPD performed very poorly, PS a little better, but in general the center-left was not successful. Does the relationship between two souls change?

-Borik was creating a shift towards social democracy or democratic socialism, which was opposed around the world. The latter had to bank on it, no more, as it was the decision of the President. But it turns out that Borik is left in an awkward position as I accept the dignity that he might as well be asked to re-arrange his accounts solely because he had more votes than Democratic Socialism. I believe the President was actually seeking a government of greater national unity, broadening its bases and even pointing to Aylwyn’s imagination. Now Borik is caught between Aylvin and Petro.

The Republican Party has been showing a more moderate side. For example, Kast on Thursday called on councilors to be prudent and to distance themselves from the failed convention.

Strategically, Republicans must exercise restraint and allow tension, polarization and conflict to be on the side of the other, not them. They must learn to communicate with a world other than the one they are aware of. Strategically, he has no choice but to make deals with Republicans. The burden of proof for the success or failure of the process lies with you.

Cast is difficult to catch. For example, one could imagine that they do not like to fail to create a process for the leftists, which may also be encouraged by the fact that they not only sabotage the new constitution, but they also allow Jose Antonio Casta and his figures Can also deeply affect. Presidential Option.

-Is there going to be tension between Chile Vamos and the Republicans during the council?

This is a developing story. We have already seen some alignment in Chile Vamos regarding the minimum wage bill, where a portion of the UDI went with the Republicans and another portion of the UDI went with Chile Vamos. So we can start to see what Chile Vamos is starting to fall apart. And some are even starting to take positions closer to Republican, because the Republican brand is very attractive to any candidate, to any lawmaker who wants to get re-elected.

So, it’s a complicated issue, with the potential to break up or reorganize Chile Vamos, which is clearly moving forward at the moment. This strong republican tsunami must have many aftershocks in the Chilean world.

And strategically, what’s convenient for Cust if he wants to be president?

-What is convenient for Kast, no more than to ratify a constitution to close a constitutional issue, is to be installed as part of those centrally responsible for subverting a political process. Don’t seek conflict or polarization, but seek broad consensus. I believe this is the most strategic challenge for Cust and, on the other hand, to maintain the focus and position on the issues where society found value in the republican proposition, which are order, security and rights.

He should also distance himself from things where Republicans don’t agree with the great majority, which are fundamentally issues of value. If he gets into that area, I mean sexual and reproductive rights, gay marriage, parental adoption, probably a lot of people are going to walk away from his leadership.

– is in pole position to become president?

– is in the cast pole position to become President. but one might imagine that being in pole position Being so quick forces you to stay at a high cruising speed and no one passes you on the track. And it’s very tiring. at this point in the last presidential election, four years ago, in 2019, in pole position Joaquin Levin and Beatriz Sánchez, who ultimately did not even make it to the presidential election.

The Republican victory runs the risk of being a Pyrrhic victory in the sense that they won so much that they can lose somehow, because any mistake, any complication along the way can be very costly. The risk of falling is greater when you are tall and tall.

-What is the status of the Socialist Party (6%), which took out more councilors than the Communist Party (8%), but the latter won the vote? In the Black and White survey, the PS comes out as the second best rated party, far behind the Republicans.

– I believe it has nothing to do with the number of councilors, but with the number of votes, given their massive defeat in the ruling party. Probably the Communist Party would say: “Well, what’s the point of having fewer advisors if we are ultimately in the minority and we can do nothing in the process.” And vice versa, they can become complicit in quoting a constitution that validates Jaime Guzmán’s constitution in a democracy.

What is the President to do in this scenario? stay in the background?

-No. It is one thing that he speaks less and the other thing is that he has to take decisions. What the President can’t do is, so to speak, be stuck in a slide. That is to say, to remain at an intermediate point, without making a decision on whether to support its turn towards the centre, without moving up or down, and therefore burying the idea of ​​the end of the neoliberal model and committing itself Have to dedicate to administer; Or opt for a more ideological, more polarizing version that aims to blame the right-wing, business community for its failures. These are two tensions that the President has to resolve.

From my point of view, what the government should do is accept defeat. Realize that its government program and its basic core ideas are no longer close to the society and devote themselves to day-to-day administration, form a government of administration and a good administration in terms of economic, order and security Satisfied with, and good execution of the budget.

But does this mean giving up?

He has to accept defeat in order to be able to rule. He has to give up his original project in order to be able to lead the new reality that touched him; and that a plebiscite and election of constituents revealed that the scenario he saw was a world he had imagined.

Nation World News Desk
Nation World News Desk
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