Federal meteorologists are predicting a record-breaking seventh unusually busy Atlantic hurricane season in a row.
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted Tuesday that 14 to 21 named storms will form in the Atlantic over the summer, six to 10 hurricanes and three to six turbo-charging major hurricanes with winds of more than 110 mph. Even as the benchmarks are trending upward to reflect the more active hurricane season in recent decades, these predictions are well above the 30-year average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
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The National Hurricane Center ran out of names for Atlantic hurricanes over the past two years, with 30 named storms in the record-setting 2020 and 21 last year. There have been more Category 4 and 5 hurricane landfalls in the United States in the past five years than in the past 50 years.
This hurricane season is “going to be similar to last year’s and given that you only need one bad storm to dramatically affect your life, if you fail to plan around this approach, So you’re planning to fail,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad. Associated Press Tuesday. “You can take this approach literally to the bank when it comes to protecting your assets.”
Every weather factor points to a busy season, said Matthew Rosenkrans, chief hurricane season outlook forecaster for NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. They pointed to a multi-decade-long trend for more storms in the Atlantic, an active monsoon season in West Africa, a La Nia – the natural and occasional cooling of parts of the equatorial Pacific that changes weather around the world – and Warmer than normal ocean temperatures, which scientists say are affected by climate change.
Many outdoor hurricane experts agree with NOAA that Atlantic conditions are ripe for yet another active hurricane season. They say that La Nia reduces wind shear that can destroy storms. According to Rosenkrans, the warm waters — about half a degree warmer (0.3 degrees Celsius) than last year in hurricane-generating regions — act as storm fuel. A reduction in particulate matter pollution in the air has fueled artificial cooling in the Atlantic, and a new study links it to rising storms.
Last week, President Joe Biden also warned the nation of “another difficult hurricane season”.
“We are seeing these storms happen more frequently. They are lasting longer,” FEMA director Dean Criswell said at a press conference in New York City. NOAA says 13 people in the city during Hurricane Ida It also marks the 10th anniversary of Superstorm Sandy, a downgraded hurricane that became one of the costliest weather disasters in US history, with massive flooding in New York.
“We have seen such a dramatic change in the types of weather events that can be seen as a result of climate change,” Criswell said.
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NOAA said there is a 65 percent chance for “above-normal” hurricane season, a 25 percent chance for normal weather and only a one in 10 chance for unusually calm weather.
A key indicator, which takes into account the number of storms, how strong they are and how long they last, is called the Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index, or ACE, and Rosenkrans said this is more than twice the normal since the year 1950. could. The calculations are used when determining what is average weather and what is above average.
The average ACE since 1950 has been just shy of 100, compared to 132 in 2017 to 225 over the past six years.
That’s a record of six straight above-average years, breaking the old mark of three-in-a-row, said Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher and seasonal forecaster at Colorado State University. He said that it is highly likely that this year the record will reach seven.
“It’s really strange that we’ve been so active six seasons in a row,” said hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy of the University of Miami.
NOAA’s predictions are forged with ten other meteorological teams — government, university and private — that have predicted their hurricane season. Their predictions averaged 20 named storms, with eight becoming hurricanes and four becoming major hurricanes.
Because La Nia has a different effect in the Pacific and conditions are generally opposite, earlier this month NOAA predicted a calmer than normal Pacific hurricane season.
The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1.
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