Macroeconomic Data to Highlight
In the week of January 30 to February 3, investors in the Eurozone will focus on the ECB’s Governing Council meeting and the Bank of England (BoE) meeting. bank of england,
In addition, the unemployment rate and estimated CPI for January will also be published, as well as advanced GDP data in 4Q and final PMI for the Eurozone.
Additionally, business results presentation season will continue with the publication of financial statements from Swiss pharmaceutical companies Novartis and Roche, German semiconductor group Infineon and carmaker Ferrari.
All this in a context in which a reduction in energy prices and labor market flexibility at the end of 2022 has led to a rebound in the European Commission’s preliminary forecast and an indicator of private sector economic sentiment. PMI reading for January.
Specifically, according to the European Commission indicator, consumer confidence rose 1.1 points to -20.9 points, however, it remains at a low level given the persistence of recession risks. In turn, the overall PMI of the European Monetary Area rose to 50.2 points (compared to 49.3 points in December), a contractionary zone (<50 अंक) में 6 महीने से अधिक समय के बाद विस्तार क्षेत्र (>50 marks). A development that has been explained by the greater dynamism of both the service sector and industry.
On Tuesday, January 31 at 11:00 am (Peninsular Time), Eurostat will publish its first estimate of the European Monetary Area’s GDP growth at the end of 2022. Headline inflation and the labor market showed resilience last year, with Eurozone GDP expected to decline 1.7% year-on-year in Q4, with an estimated contraction in output of 0.1% compared to the previous quarter.
Additionally, on Thursday, February 2, top leaders of the ECB and BOE will meet in the context of the upward trend in core inflation. Thus, the analysts’ consensus expects the ECB to raise its official interest rates by 50 bp to 3.00%, from which point the next hike will moderate until reaching a maximum rate of 3.30%.
For its part, in the United Kingdom, the official BoE interest rate hike is expected to be 4.00% (versus the current 3.50%) and the maximum rate will reach 4.40% in August.
In the US, after publication of the first readings of GDP for bureau of economic analysisThat reflects activity growth of 2.9% annualized in Q4, 0.3pp above market consensus estimates and slightly lower than the 3.2% annualized rate registered last quarter, as macroeconomic leadership will focus on Fed decisions.
In turn, next week a large number of companies will be presenting their 4Q corporate results, such as technology company Qualcomm, automobile company General Motors or oil company Exxon Mobil.
With respect to the US labor market, on Wednesday, February 1, ADP will publish its survey of the state of US private sector employment in January, with the analyst consensus projecting a slowing in the pace of private sector job creation in January. 160,000 (vs. previous 235,000). month).
For its part, on Wednesday the 1st at 8:00 pm (Peninsular Time) the Fed will announce the official interest rate for the US economy. In this regard, interest rates are expected to increase by 25 bps keeping it in the range of 4.50%-4.75%. Thus, fed funds futures are expected to reach a final terminal rate in March with a rate of around 5.00%.
Finally, the US economy’s unemployment rate for January will be announced on Friday the 3rd. In this sense, a slight increase of 0.1 pp in the number of unemployed is estimated at 3.6% of the active population (compared to 3.5% in the previous month).
Asia Pacific region
In the Asia-Pacific region, activity will moderate due to the start of the Chinese New Year and the closure of most stock exchanges in the region.
All this in a context in which preliminary data from the Japanese Composite PMI Project suggests that it will be back in expansion territory (>50 points). Specifically, it will stand at 50.8 points (versus 49.7 points), supported by a 1.3 point increase in the services sector to 52.4 points, compared to a more moderate advance of 0.5 points to 47.1 points in the manufacturing sector.
In this context, the focus of analysts will be on retail sales and the unemployment rate of the Japanese economy. Specifically, the consensus expects wholesale sales growth to accelerate to 3.7% year-over-year in December (versus 2.6% year-over-year in November).
- Results Spain: Unicaja Banco, BBVA, Banco Santander, Caixabank, Naturgi
- Results Europe: Philips, Ryanair, UBS, Novo Nordisk, Oersted, Novartis, ING, Infineon, Siemens Healthineers, Shell, Roche, Deutsche Bank, Euronav, Ferrari, Sanofi
- US Results: Pzifer, McDonald’s, Moody’s, General Motors, Caterpillar, Exxon Mobil, Amgen, Edwards Lifesciences, Waste Management, Thermo Fisher Scientific, MetLife, Meta, Corteva, Globe Life, Estee Lauder, Merck & Company, ConocoPhillips, Snap-On, Eli Lilly & Co, Apple, Alphabet, Ford Motor, Amazon, Gilead Sciences, Starbucks, Qualcomm, Zimmer Biomet, Cigna
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Weekly Economic Agenda is available in PDF format at the following link.
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