The Colombian national team drew positive conclusions at the end of the first two dates of the South American qualification. Although the Tricolor’s game is still unconvincing, Néstor Lorenzo’s side managed to take four points out of a possible six thanks to the 1-0 win against Venezuela and the goalless draw during their visit to Chile.
What are the chances of Colombia qualifying for the 2026 World Cup?
The specialized statistics portal Matics published the probability of qualification of the ten South American teams for the 2026 World Cup, which for the first time in history will be held in three countries: the USA, Mexico and Canada.
It is worth remembering that Conmebol will have an additional quota on this occasion, since for the first time in its history the World Cup will include not 32 but 48 teams. So there will be six teams from South America that will take part, qualify directly and another will have the opportunity to reach the countries’ highest football event via the playoffs.
According to Matics, after the second date, the Colombian national team has an 85.7% chance of qualifying directly, while in the event of a playoff the probability is 92.2%.
“The classification probabilities are based on a thorough analysis that takes into account historical data, previous performances in qualifying rounds and factors such as home field,” the Matics report said.
Likewise, Argentina and Brazil are the teams that have virtually guaranteed their place in the FIFA World Cup, as they have a 100% and 99.9% probability respectively.
Meanwhile, Bolivia and Paraguay have almost ruled out taking part in the World Cup as their chances of neither direct qualification nor the playoffs exceed 30%.
South American teams’ probabilities to compete in the 2026 World Cup (the playoffs in parentheses)
- Argentina: 100% (100%)
- Brazil: 99.9% (100%)
- Uruguay: 92.7% (96.4%)
- Colombia: 85.7% (92.2%)
- Peru: 66.3% (82%)
- Ecuador: 59.8% (75%)
- Chile: 36.5% (52.3%)
- Venezuela: 30.1% (47.8%)
- Bolivia: 15.6% (27.2%)
- Paraguay: 13.8% (27.2%)