In the last episode of Macro marketsAnalyst Marcel Pechman examines the current state of the US economy. He points to a headline from Barron that highlights the disconnect between people’s perceptions of the economy and objective data.
Pechman delves deeply into the concept of oversaving and agrees with Barron that a significant portion of the U.S. population does not have enough savings for retirement, which could require longer working years. It notes that household wealth in the United States has reached record levels, largely due to increases in stock and real estate wealth.
Pechman shifts his focus to address American consumers’ growing concerns about rising prices, particularly the cost of filling their vehicles with gasoline. Couple this with the recent rise in US crude oil futures, which was influenced by Saudi Arabia’s decision to extend production cuts.
Pechman sees challenges for President Joe Biden, particularly in dealing with inflation and the impact of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes on the housing market and the S&P 500. He then discusses the impact on Bitcoin (BTC), suggesting that if the Inflation exceeds income growth, it could put downward pressure on the cryptocurrency.
Pechman turns to the U.S. budget problem and examines the possibility of a government shutdown due to disagreements in Congress. In a critical analysis, Pechman questions the use of disaster funds to cover war expenses and highlights the Biden administration’s priorities. It emphasizes the possible consequences and legality of such maneuvers.
Finally, Pechman points out that a government shutdown in the US could trigger a rise in the price of Bitcoin and recommends keeping an eye on this potential trigger for a cryptocurrency rally in early October.
