In 2023, the world No. 3 lost only one of 48 tour matches where he won the first set. Adrian Mannarino’s 4-6, 6-4, 6-2 second-round victory in ‘s-Hertogenbosch in June made the Frenchman the sole owner of a comeback win over Medvedev this season.
Medvedev’s master class is not a new trend either. He has 272 wins and 28 losses in his career after winning the first set. Those statistics from Infosys ATP Stats suggest the 27-year-old will take a big step towards his second Grand Slam title with a fast start against Novak Djokovic in the US Open title match on Sunday.
Highest % of Wins After Winning the First Set, 2023
A look at Medvedev’s previous wins against Djokovic also suggests that the opening set will be crucial. Four of his five Lexus ATP Head2Head wins against the Serbian have come after winning the first set, with his only comeback victory coming in the Cincinnati semi-final of the pair in 2019.
However, there are also few opponents who are likely to be less bothered by such numbers than 23-time Grand Slam champion Djokovic, famous for his ability to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat and especially when it comes to in a five-set battle. the Majors.
The Serbian is almost as capable as Medvedev this year (he’s 38-2 in 2023 after winning the first set), and the numbers also show that Djokovic doesn’t rely on fast starts like his opponent in the championship match. Medvedev is 8-10 this season after losing the first set, while Djokovic, in comparison, is 6-3.
So, the first box Medvedev must check when he steps foot in Arthur Ashe Stadium? Start right away and take the first set. And the second? Step on the accelerator and don’t look back… Just like he did in his straight sets victory over the Serbian in the 2021 final at Flushing Meadows.